I'm a big Spies fan, and would love to see him win on the Duc, but I think the bike needs a lot before it can win. Melandrie is good at chucking a bike around, was labeled a "dark horse" for the Duc, and look how well he did. Nicky is a good rider also, who's biggest crime seems to be shredding the tires before the race is over, yet he's languished for years now on the Duc. The bike seems to be fundamentally flawed. I hope I'm wrong though.
It's more fun to ride a slow bike fast than a fast bike slow.