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Old 01-10-2013, 06:15 AM   #225
PackMule
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Joined: Aug 2005
Location: New Hampshah
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Quote:
Originally Posted by homerj View Post
There seem to be lots of comments about CdP's relatively slow pace. I can't help but think of an interview I heard with Rick Mears (multiple Indy 500 winner) when he talked about managing risk in a long race.

He would basically half-life the entire race. For the first half he would only push as much as necessary to maintain within reach of the leaders (IIRC, he only wanted to be on the lead lap).

The second half was broken into quarters. The first quarter he would push hard enough to high up on the board (say 10th).

The second quarter was broken into eighths. The first eighth he would push harder, and begin taking more risks to get onto the podium. If he found himself in 1st by the end of the that eighth, he would then manage his lead.

If still behind, the final eighth was divided into sixteenths, and he would increase his pace again. Begin taking more risk. If at the end of that he was still not in the lead he would start pushing flat out, maxiumum attack.

Mears' whole point of this is that racing is about managing risk to the exent that it can be managed. Pushing hard from the start to the finish is simply not possible -and he was only talking about 500 miles on pavement, or 1000 in Baja - nothing near the race distance of Dakar. You cannot take those kinds of risks for the entire race and reasonably expect to make it to the finish line. Think of it as the anit-Robby strategy. Gordon is kind of known for having great speed, but breaking his toys, or crashing, or both. It seems from the outside that Robbie is pushing too hard for too long and the law of averages bites him.

So why on Earth would CdP do anything to risk his rallye so early on? He's within touch of his challengers. He can pull the cork seemingly at will and clip 10 minutes off the entire field except Coma (who's out). There's simply no upside for Cyril to run maximum attack at this point.

We will probably not start to see Cyril take big bites out of people until after the rest day.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brodovitch View Post
Couldn't agree more. For chrissakes, it's (still) the bloody Dakar, not a hare scramble. And by risks, people seem to forget that taking care of the bike as well as your body is high on the list. Let's not forget that Barreda had to make an engine change before his fuel pump problems
Quote:
Originally Posted by Clancy View Post
One of our late, great drivers in Aus. had a philosophy about our biggest enduro race. For the first 3/4 of the race you're just buying your ticket for the last 1/4. Once you've paid for the ticket you can take part in the race. I think Cyril might just be buying his ticket at the moment.
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