J-Lo beat Pedro this year, seems to me he can do the same this year.
Nobody knows how fast VR will be but I bet he still has the skills and I bet he is still hungry too.
MM is new to the big bikes, and I figure he'll be one of those guys that looks awesome in testing, and races really fast until he wipes out (a few times?) and either injury or fear of the bike slow him down. He ought to be good for a win or two.
The way I see it this adds up to: