The top two qualifiers will start on the 1st row. The next four qualifiers are guaranteed a starting spot but their positions won't be decided until after the duels. I don't remember if this is the way it worked last year or not.
The rest of the field is "sort of" decided by finishes in the duels. But I don't really understand how the final 4 or 5 spots are handed out. Last years points come into play, somehow.
...and the past champion provisional.
of weird things would have to happen for any of the top drivers to miss the race, but it is possible.