I forget which Spanish site did an analysis of Marquez's test performance compared to Pedrosa and Lorenzo. On paper, Marquez was marginally better than Pedrosa, who was marginally better than Lorenzo, and we know who has more championships between Lorenzo and Pedrosa.
Marquez is showing he's capable of fighting for podiums and maybe wins. More than that, over the course of a 45-minute race and an 18 round season vs. Pedrosa, Lorenzo and Rossi, is impossible to predict.
Googling 'ben spies "real deal"' gets around 100,000 hits. A real deal is 20-20 hindsight.