Put yourself in his shoes...You have a yr old kid, fanily life is becoming more important and your job is high stakes and high risk. What are your chances of winning again, this time on another bike? Would you risk it? What happens if you don't win the next Dakar (for whatever reason...) - will you be written off?
Or do you bow out while the going is good and maybe move into a buggy with Al Attiyah or something else? You still have your name, you are no longer expected to be the lead dog...the pressure is off and you can learn a new vehicle.
I'm not saying he will NOT go over to Honda, but its almost the middle of the year and there is no sign of Despres.....
I think if he is not with Honda, he may be into something else altogether.