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Old 06-26-2013, 11:22 AM   #18
Paebr332
Studly Adventurer
 
Joined: Apr 2012
Location: Shippensburg, PA
Oddometer: 942
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ceri JC View Post
It's one of the weird things about risk, even when presented with concrete evidence to the contrary, otherwise rationale people have an extremely hard time debasing their "gut instinct" enough to do what is statistically safest.
The term is Neglect of Probability.

Humans are really, really bad at properly accounting for either highly likely or highly unlikely probabilities. Even though over 30,000 Americans will die in automobile crashes this year almost no one gives it the slightest thought when they get in/on their vehicle. On the flip side, people freak out about boarding a plane or fear lightning strikes or murder at the hands of strangers, all of which are statistically extremely unlikely to ever occur to you.

The use of the micromort metric should clue everyone into the fact that while statistically motorcycle riding is comparable to being a soldier in Afghanistan the odds of death actually are very low for both. Poor diet and lack of exercise is much more likely to kill either one.

Paebr332 screwed with this post 06-26-2013 at 06:24 PM
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