Good ol' "lucky number 13" eh...?
I have had the patented Brodomath
TM calculator out ham f5istedly crunching the numbers in an attempt to guess where "off the broom" Boom Boom Barreda might end up on SS13 if he disengages the BRAIN button and puts it into warp(SPEED) drive in a last ditch effort to confirm he is the fastest out there...
The interesting thing about the "reverse start" order is that it has the effect of "bunching" the field towards the closing stages of the SS. in the normal situation where the fastest start out front, the physical time gaps between each of the competitors (typically/theoretically) increase - kind of like a piano accordian being stretched.
With the reverse order, the rear of the field closes on the front (who are travelling on average slower) so that (again theoretically) by the two thirds of the stage completed, the middle third of the field gets closer (in physical proximity) to each other... ie. the accordian is compressed.
here's where the "passing in dust" and danger element that too old mentioned above comes in. Not only is barreda and the other Alien/elite at the rear of field moving forward through the mid pack... but the slowest riders off the front (some in limp home/get to the finish mode) are effective being overtaken/sucked back into the middle third of the pack as well.
The Brodocalculator got all einstein theory like for a while
but the layman's translation came up; "it's gonna end in tear's for somebody"
If conditions were dust free then theortically purely based on speed difference between the elite, and the amatuers off the front... the last 20 riders are between 30 to 25% faster over the 157 km's than those off first. If it were "clear sailing" then Barreda could pick off 15 to 20 riders ahead... but in the dust? Russian Roulette.
If it is dusty/hard to pass... given his start position (and the 10 minute fresh air he starts with in front of him) david Casteu is in the box seat to set a good stage time (win?
) maybe not considering his shoulder injury?
It should be f5un