Honda, Yamaha, Suzuki & Kawasaki - Listen Up, Please...

Show time!
EICMA is next week. Tokyo show begins 11/20. Other than the KTM 390, I have not heard any credible rumors. CCM is about to launch a 450 adventure bike that looks pretty appealing, but they have no real presence in the U.S.

The DRZ 400 motor has been in Suzuki Quads for a while, and it's FI, my dealer told me the DR 400 engine for the bikes came fom the Quad, true or not, I don't know, but there is a FI 400 Quad. I think Suzuki is still having big time money problems. CMS

The LTZ 400 uses the same motor from the DRZ but it has a carb, and reverse

the LTR 450 uses the engien from the motocross/enduro line RMZ 450 and has FI but no reverse

THE problem here with getting Japanese 4 to produce this 450cc bike is economics.

The 250cc version of this bike is a world-wide sales bike. What they build can be sold in every market. It's the big bike at 250cc, but it can be sold non the less. A 450cc is too big for many markets and those market are ones that sell alot of bikes. In many of the places the 450cc version can sell it would only sell in small numbers as a rec bike. If the Japanese 4 thought they could make $ on it, at least 1 would have tried. They don't care what a small niche of ADVers want, they want to sell alot of bikes as profit is the motive.

450cc dirtbikes do exist as there are sold in most of the world and sell well enough. Since off-road, size restrictions not in play also. The DR400 still sells in the US because it's old and paid for and CAFE rules (written so the auto mfg can sell profitable yet dirty & thirsty SUVs) allow the DR to still be sold and be offset but other more fuel-efficient and cleaner models.

Add to that everyone is still recovering financially and will only invest $ in what they think are sales home runs...so don't hold your breath.

eakins - thank you for your comments.

While I partially agree, particularly with "don't hold your breath" Where I would disagree is on the data that they may be using to guage the market. If they are utilizing sales data for current models, of course it's not going to look that good - all of their current models are very long-in-the-tooth - good bikes for their time, but all of them are 1980s and 1990s technology - it's almost 2014! The DRZ400 was introduced in 1998 and that's the newest of the bunch (including 650s). Since all of these bikes have been around virtually unchanged for 15-20+ years, there's lots of good used ones available which takes considerable numbers away from new bike sales.

They keep giving us the same old models with bold new graphics. As a customer, this ticks me off. All of the "big four" are taking us for granted and have been for some time.

I would like to believe (yeah, yeah) that threads / blogs like this one, as well as phone calls and e-mails might get their attention and get them thinking about what their customers want and fulfilling that demand. That's really the point of this thread. Unless we speak up, we'll keep getting the same ol', same ol'.

you're welcome.

you are assuming the Japanese mfg. will build something new because the old design is that old and must be updated...a bunch of people on ADV and other websites want the new stuff. they build when it makes the best biz/financial sense to them nothing more nothing less. they are not doing to this appease what we want on ADV and what we think they should so

2 things. #1 the Japanese 4 will build when they think they can make some good $ on a bike model and sell it around the world, not when the old stuff hits so many years old. that's KTM m/o, not Japan Inc. #2 if they can still legally sell these old models (that's have been paid for many times over) in certain markets and people still buy them, why would they change their methods? r&d costs serious $ that must be recouped. selling the same old machine just keeps producing steady profits.

the 450cc street-legal dual-sport bike concept is not unknown to the Japanese mfg. they choose, from a financial stand point, not to build one. if talked to many a Japanese rep about current bikes and future ones. Japan Inc. will only move when it's in their best $ sense to do so. hate to tell you this, it's about their profits, not your desires or being ticked off. don't like it? buy a euro brand.

WHile many Americans don't yet see it, I think the rest of the World is adjusting it's expectations for expendable income for U.S. workers. As we go forward, blue collar folks and young people will have less and less to spend on things like dual sport motorcycles.

Scooter sales have a bright future.

Dual sport bikes are some of the most affordable on the market, especially if you consider that adding a set of supermoto wheels/tires essentially gives you two bikes in one. I think the $10,000-$15,000 + sport bike and cruiser market is going to be hurt more if you think disposable income is drying up.

That being said, I think a WR450R dual sport costing right around $7999 would sell like crazy. I'd be the first in line.

Dual sport motorcycles are a rare breed as determined by market demand. Most of Americans interested in offroad-capable motorcycles are either riding MX bikes on tracks, riding trail bikes on trails, or riding ADV-touring bikes mainly on the street. Everyone else who does something in between or in combination is a very small minority (which this forum seems to over-represent in the minds of people like the OP). That's why the dual sport market is ignored.

Look at every manufacturer from Kawi to Yama to KTM...tons of MX and trail bikes, a few ADV bikes, one or two street legal dirt bikes/dual sports. As has been stated in this thread, that's what the market demands and that's what it gets regardless of what a few thousand people "demand" online. Demand is not what is begged for in threads like this, demand is when a person goes and actually buys something with their money. If dual sports were selling like hot cakes then all the manufacturers would be offering a lot more options in that vein including what so many of us drool over on this forum and others like it.

If manufacturers were to come out with these kinds of bikes despite the lack of true market demand, half the people begging for them wouldn't buy them for whatever reason even if they could afford it. Like women, the market often does not know what it wants...but manufacturers know. Some companies make dildos which get used by more women than are willing to admit it in a market survey, but the sales numbers don't lie...other companies make motorcycles that aren't quite good enough for picky dual sport riders despite their needs and desires being 90% filled by the current offerings, again the sales numbers don't lie but people typing on keyboards do. Admittedly I believe dual sport riders are picky because we have legitimately complex demands (riding environment, etc.) unlike the masses of cruiser and sport bike riders...but we're picky nonetheless and that doesn't please the makers of motorcycles.

If enough people got over their pipe-dreams for mystical dual sport motos and settled on an existing dual sport to purchase new, then the manufacturers would see the sales increases and start offering more options if it was profitable...that's what's happened in all the other popular moto markets such as cruisers, sport bikes, and ATVs. It's a give and take situation not just something that the manufacturers arbitrarily decide on. When dual sport riders because a significantly profitable market segment then our demands will be listened to very carefully. Will that ever happen? I don't believe so; too many people prefer the simple-minded Sunday ride to Starbucks over the challenges of dual sport riding. Most riders don't want and can't handle a challenge of any sort beyond keeping the bike upright and intact.

So, what you are saying is that if we buy more of their old obsolete bikes, they'll start building new modern bikes?

If it's profitable for them, yes. How long did it take for EFI to make it to bikes especially offroad bikes? People were buying "outdated" bikes for decades until one day manufacturers decided to put EFI in the bikes that were selling well because they knew it'd make them sell even better. How long did it take till 4-stroke dirt bikes were made despite the tech being available for years and years? Same point there.

Also, I wouldn't consider the WR250R or 690R Enduro "outdated", both bikes have quite a bit of tech and performance to offer and what is a compromise is a usually done in the name of compromised dual sport usage. If either of these bikes shot up in sales numbers you can guarantee their manufacturers would start to offer more models with better tech. Tech is an investment and unless it increases the sales numbers AND contribution margin then it's a complete waste of money. But to increase sales the model has to already be selling well...I don't know of any cause were a manufacturer slapped some new tech on a bike and transformed it from a turd into a magic-machine. Turds get flushed away.

As I said in my earlier post, the market often does not know what it wants. Even in this thread like all others like it, people are torn between the tech/performance of EFI and the simplicity/reliability of carbs...so what's a manufacturer to do? The best of both worlds is reliable/sorted EFI and eventually that's what manufacturers bring around to update their carb'd bikes that are already selling well because the update will make them sell better. Granted it takes a few years for manufacturers to get the message but when they get it it's loud and clear because they want to make profits off of real demand which does not appear overnight but rather over the course of years.

Yamaha could have released the WR250R with a carb but they had reliable EFI and it helps make that bike competitive against the truly outdated Jap dual sports. They looked at the sales of dual sports across the manufacturers and asked themselves how they could introduce a new dual sport and make it competitive. They answered that question with the small-bore dual sport now in highest demand, their WR250R. Even though they themselves weren't selling a lot of dual sports they saw the potential in the market however small and made appropriate offerings (one model, not including the TW and TT models which aren't in the same league). They saw the potential because people were buying dual sports in enough numbers for it to be profitable for them to introduce one dual sport with new tech. If people weren't buying the "outdated" old tech dual sports from other manufacturers and Yamaha (such as their non-WR dual sports), then Yamaha would have never released the WR250R much less with EFI.

Thanks Sig

Yes, the 690 and the WRR are both alternatives - I am currently riding a 690 and we have several WRRs and WRXs in the family - all great bikes. But, this misses the specific point of the thread.

A mid-displacement, modern, UJM dual-sport should not be a high expectation, "fantasy bike" or "unicorn". This bike should have been built years ago. Given the age and old technology of their current offerings, it's a shame that this bike is not being built by any of them.

This:

The Japanese OEMs no longer prioritize US market sales for their product planning. They factor it in, but it is not their focus. Instead, they are looking at models that can sell on a global basis, and paying increasing attention to emerging markets such as South America and SE Asia. Both of these are transitioning from transportation markets to, at least in part, enthusiasts markets. In those places, bikes like the CRF250L are innovative and coveted.

Let's not forget that the CRF250L IS a home run here, and in other places also. It is selling very well. More importantly, it is bringing in new and / or re-entry customers here. I have been told from a contact at Honda, directly, that this is deliberate, that they want to go beyond the existing core market (inmates) because the core market is small and hyper-competitive.

And this. Remember that you do not just build a new model....there is a massive investment of R+D, tooling, homologation (NHSTA, EPA, etc), promotion, and distribution. This investment is far, far greater than it used to be, and adds hundreds if not thousands to each unit. At the same time, a depressed market puts downward price pressure on bike models, making the ROI on new ones challenging. OTOH, existing bikes like the XR650L, DR650, DRz400, etc are paid for, profitable,....and selling well.

There is also a tendency to overlook the #s. IIRC the US market has NEVER passed 1.1 million units, while global sales are around 40 million units. People point to KTM, who sells 120,000 bikes WORLDWIDE.....while Honda sells more than that in the US alone. The US market in total is about 650,000 to 700,000 units, for all bikes. DS and ADV bikes are growing, but still probably 10% of that at most. A GREAT selling DS model here is 6000 - 10,000. The moto population is aging. The term used in marketing for where we are is "back side of the demand curve". Though that sounds grim, in reality, what Honda is doing is exactly what is needed to reverse it.

It would be wrong to presume that product planners at the Japanese 4 are not smart or out of touch. Realistically, if we say that XYZ new model would sell like hotcakes, we have to put ourselves in the position of a product planner.....any bike other than a cruiser or sportbike will be lucky to break 10,000 units, It costs millions to develop them. The math is not there.

BP

What are the assumed causes to this? Feel free to link me somewhere for further reading.

I'm new to the moto world, but thought the rise of Supercross in the US would help with the sport's popularity. Though I suppose SX is marketed as a spectator sport more similar to nascar or football than an enthusiast's hobby for the weekend warriors like us.

trust me guys, i'd love to see these bikes available from one of the 4 Japanese mfg. i love and ride Japanese bike. i'd love to see a modern DR650 and XR650L w/ FI & USD suspension. i'd love to see a WR450R. i'd love to see KLR with a Versys motor. I'd love to see the 660 Tenere sold in the US. i'd love to see a true ADV 650 Strom with tubeless spoked wheels and USD suspension....

i use to jump into these same type of threads and say wtf Japan?
i was there, but over time I have talked to enough reps and dealership mgrs to understand how things really work through all the internet fluff out there.
what i say is true on how biz works for the Japanese mfg.

they are also saddled by the consumer perception that they are cheaper machines. the Euros can go high end because people expect them to cost more. the Japanese can only charge so much and then people say i'll buy a euro bike for the same $. honda pushed on the high end of pricing and it backfired on them. the Japanese mfg had to create a new lines of cars to build higher end and charge more. this is why we have Lexus, Acura & Infinity. even though this might work on the bike end, sales would be low (vrs car sales) and so I doubt this will ever happen.

I don't understand this notion that a modern UJM 350-450cc dual-sport would or could not be a global bike. It would hit the spot in all but emerging markets.

Does anyone know how Husaberg was able to offer the 390/450/570 with EPA emissions compliance, but without DOT equipment, and still have those bikes be eligible for street registration?

What I'm getting at is: is there still opportunity for a mfg. to sell a hard core dirt machine and allow the customer to make the bike legal? IF manufacturers could do so, it might reduce their development costs while still satisfying inmates. If Honda is already designing a new CR450X... It could only increase sales of these models to have them potentially street-legal.

I do not know if the added sales would offset the costs.

If I'm not mistaken, many countries have tiered licensing where 400cc is a demarcation line. Not sure if it is licensing or insurance, but 400cc is a cutoff for some. I think that is the point of some of the posters above. In fact, here's a story about Honda developing a 400cc twin for just such a reason (sleeved down CB500 engine): http://rideapart.com/2013/01/honda-plans-new-400cc-range/

But even with a 400cc cutoff, I am quite certain the Big Four could build a better 400 than the DRZ. (Although 50 extra cc's and a 6 speed would do wonders for the DRZ, not to mention EFI). For that matter, build a better 650 than the DR/XR/KLR.

These bikes are sold with all DOT equipment fitted in other world markets except the USA.

If it were built to a high enough spec, there would be no need for a 650 class bike in their lineup(s). With the exception of the 660 Tenere @ 47 crank HP, they are all well under 40 crank HP. Imagine a modern KLR --- with a curb weight in the low 300s.