Just heard some great news.. +2 more Brits are in!! This race is hotting up now, gonna be a heart stopping F5 season! Reckon that has the tally up to 9 or 10 entries now... our biggest year ever?
Way to put your self "out there" and make such a bold prediction five months out from the start gun FLOOD... I like it! Your concise 1. 2. 3. appraisal graphically illustrates what I think wilkinsonk and too old are getting at... and that is that the HRC boy's will be setting their sights on the targets pinned on Eet's okay Coma, and Cyril Esprit's backs, in the hopes of an upset. But... way to put the kybosh on the B-F outfits new birthday present... :huhUnfortunately, my gut feeling is... that you are right (it is a big possibility) and I agree with you. Hard to motivate perhaps; given that we haven't even seen/heard of a working race prototype in testing or participated in any other rally events thus far... but that in itself points towards the likelihood that they could experience some "teething problems" come DAKAR time. Hypothetically speaking Ken... here is what I reckon the KTM management and aliens support council will be doing (as soon as the details of the course/shedule are made known from ASO). They will carefully go through each stage, using the overall distances given (for liason and specials) as well as the overnight bivouac locations, and using resources such as google earth, mapsource etc. try to establish a "feel" for the terrain and nature of each days competition. Already we know - from the fact that the rally is starting in Lima, and that from last years event; the close proximity and abundance of tough desert dunes/terrain in Peru - that the beginning of the rally this year will probably (likely) be "tougher" than the last four editions that have started in Argentiana. The inhabited rural and agricultural area (approx 500 km radius) around Buenos Aires creates somewhat of a "buffer zone" as far as hard core off road terrain is concerned. Typically since 2009 we have seen the first couple of days consist of not much more than gravel roads and farm tracks. Nothing in the way of "off piste navigation" and possibly easier for a non-alien rider to wick it up and stay in touch with the pack. Realistically, in the last four editions of Dakar, the "tough stuff" has not started untill day three or even four/five. What Lima/Chilé present as far as a start location for DAKAR, is that the ASO can set (almost from the outskirts of Lima) some very demanding (both technical and navigation wise) off piste, desert terrain stages, right from day one... no "soft start", provided that is what they want to achieve. If KTM do their homework thoroughly (and you KNOW they will) the alien camp will be looking to find a stage early in the rally (off piste/difficult navigation), where they can put a big hole into their pursuers timewise, stamp their control on things early.. Both Marc and Cyril are very competent on GPS nav (possibly Coma slightly moreso that Despres I get the impression) and with the exception of Helder and Chaleco (possibly Ullevalsäter also), I cannot think of many others riders who can navigate quickly, decisively from up front, out in an "off piste" situation. So in the opening two or three days, if the KTM squad see an opportunity where they can push hard in a longer/arduos "off piste" navigation stage; while their machines and themselves still fresh and possibly "surprise" their HRC/B-F pursuers while they are still finding their "sea legs"... there is the chance for them to open that 20 perhaps 25 minute time gap (that wilkinsonk mentioned earlier) back to the "others" early on... Peterhansel was once the master of this tactic. Remembering of course, that in rallies; each days start order is determined by the previous days stage result (not overall)... That is to say the fastest on previous leg starts first the following day. If by day four/five the aliens have been able to successfully "run away and hide" and create a sufficient buffer in the Peruvian Chiléan hard stuff... from day five/six onwards, they can fall in behind and keep an eye on their main protagonists; as long as they keep them in sight... they are in the lead. It forces the (perhaps not so used to leading) opposition from HRC etc. to try and catch up from in front (not attack from behind). Psychologically a very different kettle of fish. So in fact, it could turn out be the exact opposite of the "minimize the time gaps to up front" that wilkinsonk suggest in the previous post... Maybe the "others" will have to lead from the front...instead of chase from behind. That is what is required to win a DAKAR these days (true in both the auto and moto categories) and that's something that only the aliens have shown they have the ability to do regularly in the past. Engine changes/tactics/reliability?: I am pretty certain that almost all teams have a pre-determined service/engine change plan (based on their own testing and service intervall protocols) that they go to DAKAR with. But all of these get altered along the way, due to unplanned mechanicals, tactical decisions depending on where/what the competition have done etc. So what KTM will do regards engine transplants etc. at this point in time...? Impossible to say, other than; it most likely WILL play a factor - no doubt.
I'll try and stick up some of the key points from the TBM article I mentioned if I get time later, as it covers a few of these points. As I said in (IIRC) the HRC thread, I don't find it impossible to believe that either manufacturer will turn up to the Dakar with a bike that is more or less as good as a 450RR, but the fact they don't have either Despres or Coma will still prevent them taking the win. And yeah, there is a reasonable likelyhood of a '50p part failure' DNF for some of the BF bikes.
Ah yes Brodo... but by then the odds could fall* It takes a truly courageous type like FLOOD to put their money up five months out from the first round bell. *Mind you... the B-F odds could go way up if the things fall into bits at Egypt...? or if HRC share skyrocket if they turn up in Lima with four MotoGP semis and a cast of hundreds. The topic at hand at the momemnt is who is prepared to put money where the mouth is here and now... based on the limited info. we have at hand. Frankly Brodo, your "sit on the fence/wait and see" attitude is pretty (jokingly) dissappointing... It inspires about as much confidence as the Greek economy*... oser *(sorry I couldn't help myself...)
Oh let's not go there... No, I am (naively maybe?) optimistic regarding the Mi1... as for the 50p piece failing, well that would have to be the mechanic's fault, no? I am pretty sure all the teams (except HRC - their attention to detail is second to none) use the same -proven- off-the-shelf bits... I am talking fuel pumps, brakes, clutches, electrical components etc... In my opinion it's up to how much attention the bikes get at the end of each day by the mechanics, and how much effort & time they are prepared to spend on the bikes... remember the Verhoeven / Sherco debacle, or rider's gripes with Geofil, failures were mainly down to lazy/inept mechanics IIRC I am pretty sure big orange replace about 50% (if not all) of the bits prone (or even suspect) to failure on their fleet at the end of each stage... (I have faith that BF spent a lot of hours dissecting and analyzing the 450RRs that they were racing with last year, and have probably fitted the exact same components on their new beauties) So, to go out on a limb, I think BF's success lies more in the level & quality of support they are willing to invest in the team, than the actual power plant or accessories on the bike... That will be the deciding factor, and not the powerplant (TM are not Sherco witness their results in SuperMoto) We'll get a better picture come October
Hmmmm....... I just kinda started this thread to talk about who on ADVRider might be racing the 2013 Dakar Rally. People that we might know and be able to follow. Privateers and such....:huh
Huh... that strange :huh I've never reviewed the results sheets from any of those 6000 km plus multi-day Supermoto events ... they do pretty well heh?
And then the internet took over Alrighty Troy, expect a pm soon as I got a gut feeling (hopefully better than last years gut feeling) and will be sending a wager your way. Once again not a $ bet...I'll come up with something more interesting than cash
I never bet cash... a sporting mans wager and items of sentimental value are always far more satisfying. And yes folks, we even take wagers on the Auto (as well as) moto divisions... But them Quads and SxS's... nope. There is no science to it... They are more like playing bingo than a wager... just a heap of balls randomly bouncing around, wating for something (a winner) to fall out...
Well, look what you have started, there's the HRC Dakar assault also - just goes to show the level of Interest and 5 months to go - is that about 151 sleeps to go?
a world championship is a world championship... Point being, I'm officially off the fence and on record in saying that I expect greatness from BF, I reckon within top 5 overall for the Mi1 in it's first year. Hijack over, can someone please start the '13 coverage thread already?
If you are feeling overwhelmed xr... maybe one of the kind mods can cut the last couple of pages (from about post #70) out of here, and toss it back into "The bivouac"...???
I'll second moving the conversation over to the Bivouac. It was just too irresistable of a conversation to join in on the pre-pre-pre-Dakar speculation. I'm guessing that it's a little too early to start the 2013 thread. I'll put down the first by-name wager on this year's finish: 1. Coma (to the tune of a "She Wants Revenge" album) 2. Rodriguez (to Van Halen's "Runnin' with the Devil") 3. Despres (maybe a little Muddy Water sings the blues) Rounding out the top five I see another non-factory KTM and possibly an HRC bike or one of the BF bikes (if they can keep the motor together). Just speculation of course. I hope to be in Egypt for at least part of the Pharaons to see the magic happen prior to DAkar 2013. - Ken
Rumour has it that yes he will - the rumour of who with is another thing entirely Last year the official roster didn't star appearing on the website until mid December, so some time to go yet.
first off I would like to say I was but .. nope.. only in my dreams Second was... exactly how long was Quinn Cody's contract with KTM ? He has been essentially injured all year.
The critcal difference here (for me) as compared to the other Sherco/Aprilia type efforts we've seen before, is that when HRC say they have a "three year plan", their corporate history indicates that they mean; "We plan to compete at the (budget appropriated and funds/planning set out to maintain the technical, financial, media and race support needed) DAKAR for the next three years". The nominated HRC riding line up themselves are good on paper; Helder is (on form over the last 18 months) arguably the "best of the rest" after the two aliens... a logical choice for Honda to pick up. Wagon wheel Sam is undoubtedly a big prospect for the future... but he still has yet to COMPLETE a few rallies (yes I know technology let him down in the '12 DAKAR... but you still need seat time/completeion in Dakar before a rider can compete at the front)... even Coma/Despres had a couple of Dakars (and other rallies) under their belt before they joined the "elite" few up front. As far as the other two nominated team riders go, good solid performers, who can make inroads on top 15 maybe top ten... but nothing I've seen in results to date that indicate they would be podium threats. When will the throne be abdicated...?[/ ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Hi Troy, just a bit more from a realist. You may or may not have noticed that I am a big supporter of Sam, so maybe we will find him a new tag soon, although I appreciate you recognise his position - and that isn't upside down! He doesn't actually come off that much more, or less than anyone else, but an all round occupational hazard in the sport, especially if you are pushing it - even the aliens arn't immune from that. He is without doubt one of the brighter prospects, hence why Honda/HCR have risked, no, invested in him. KTM may have done, as he was riding MC and Baja for their local rep in Dubai, but of course they couldn't with their existing set up, so their loss (for now). All motorsports and indeed sports, require an element of luck and that is hopefully turning round for Sam, he entered this year's desert challenge with an unhealed broken foot, but when possibley leading in the first stage jarred it and broke it again - he rode the last 50 k without being able to change gear and still finished 3rd! He missed Qatar because of it and then went below the radar in sardegna. The Italians scuppered him - gave him a number and a start in the 70's and wouldn't reseed him. He was on the rally bike as opposed to the majority on the enduro. As you know the track was tight and dusty and overtaking was extremely difficult, if not suicidal at times, so being stuck behind 50 or so slow riders was never going to be easy. He struggled with this for the week but finished and still managed an overall 14 th in the wrc class The Dakar is totally different, I accept that, but you won't find a more dedicated or physically prepared rider, he has put in days of long riding on his own and with HRC and has more to come - let's see what happens on the bigger stage of Egypt, but a head and not a heart thought is going to show very soon why he is wearing the colours of HRC and at 23 he has the time and the skill to become an alien himself one day
Don't know for how long, but it took him away from JCR. I do understand though that the contract does not include the Dakar, so who knows?
