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Old 11-22-2012, 06:42 AM   #91
troy safari carpente
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Talking Start list published... crystal ball out... wild predictions made...

MOTOS:

I think KTM will once more stand highest on the podium... perhaps not 1 & 2... but they are my favour to win it. Most probable tip (for my money) is Despres to break the pattern and get two in a row... Coma's injury in Marocco was a big blow to the preparation... IF he is 100% fit by january, he has the routine to push for the win... but this is the only question.

Chaleco is on KTM this year... and even though not on the factory squad... with the material at his disposal and the memory of "what could have been" from the Aprilia years... 2013 could be "now or never" for the Chileán champion to be the first latin American name on top of the Podium.

I think this year we will see a motorcycle with the letter "H" take one of the other two steps of the winner dias...

The Speedbrain team have been gaining momentum ever since the BMW program evolved into the Husqvarna program... and now they have four or five solid top 20 calibre riders on the roster, and Barreda has recently shown improved experience and speed of the front runners. The Speedbrain team were the stand out performers at the recent Rallye Maroc.

The other big "H" team will certainly make presence felt this DAKAR. I think that Helder will put HRC up on the leader board amongst the top three positions early in week one, and make a solid bid for the crown. But something tells me (intuition) that something will go wrong (there are a million things that can) and HONDA will not be on the podium... but two bikes from them in top ten is not improbable.

My MOTO podium tip is two KTM's (one on top) with a Husky on one of the lower two steps.
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Old 11-22-2012, 06:52 AM   #92
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Since we're predicitng

Going into rest day

Coma
Barreda
Helder
Lopez
Despres

At finish line

Coma
Helder
Despres
Lopez
Barreda


I have a weird feeling mudboy has a breakdown/crash/mud incident, etc...can't say why...just a feeling

Joan is fast, just not sure he can keep it together for two weeks...
Lopez...just an unpredictable fellow, seems to have lost confidence lately
Coma...fast and consitant..plus its his "turn"
Helder...so many variables, new team, new bike, etc

Wild cards...

Sunderland. I hope he plays it cool and gets a top ten finish. Young and very promising career in front of him
Viladoms...would be great to see him podium but given his new to him team and bike....not sure
Ullevalsetter....a contender for third..IF others mess up
Zanol...might, just might end up in the mix


Looks like its gonna be a good one with lots of competition within the top 20 people all jockeying for a placing in the top ten...43 more days until F5 season
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Old 11-22-2012, 09:46 AM   #93
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Deadly,your selection makes a lot of sense, except for Despres. Either he will be out or 1st or 2nd. I also think he might be out. He has been flawless four years in a row - how much longer can he keep the rubber side down at those crazy speeds.

I think Coma is not as fast as he used to be either. Certainly they have the most pressure on them, more especially Cyril, being suspicious about the No 1 and all. Bet you Marc does not agree to swap numbers like they did this year, just to screw with him. Marc's problem is he is nursing an injury, but he should still come back strongly.

Dont forget all the fast young guys who are fighting for a top 10 now in competition with the old Boys:

Zanol
Pain
Sunderland
Przygonski
West (maybe not so young but oh, so fast)
Fishy
Botturi

The more experienced boys being

Gonclaves
Svitco
Faria
Pedrero
Casteau
Viladoms
Verhoefen
Fretigne
Ullevalsetter
Czachor

Thats 18 guys (I might be missing one or two) fighting for 4-10th place, and I think its going to be the really exciting part of the 2014 Dakar.

Then there is are these guys out of AUs and South Africa who arent exactly slow and have considerable experience in their own right.

Grabham
Strange
Curtis
Van Niekerk

Also guys like Pavey and Juan Carlos Salvatierra who seem to battle with mechanicals every year and otherwise could be in the top 20 easily enough. Its one helluva strong fild, the strongest by far in years and years. I think there is going to be a bit of a shake up shake up in the top ranks in 2013, with Cyril going out on a mechanical.

So here is my prediction list:

1) Coma
2) Rodriguez
3) Barreda
4) Viladoms
5) Zanol/Chaleco {I had to edit this, I forgot about Chaleco!}
6) Faria
7) Svitco
8) Sunderland
9) Przygonski
10) Gonclaves

11) Verhoefen
12) Pedrero
13) Ullevalsetter
14) Casteu
15) Curtis
16) Pain
17) Czachor
18) Fretigne
19) Fish
20) Grabham
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Old 11-22-2012, 01:05 PM   #94
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bluebull2007 View Post
Deadly,

Thats 18 guys (I might be missing one or two) fighting for 4-10th place, and I think its going to be the really exciting part of

So here is my prediction list:

1) Coma
2) Rodriguez
3) Barreda
4) Viladoms
5) Zanol/Chaleco {I had to edit this, I forgot about Chaleco!}
6) Faria
7) Svitco
8) Sunderland
9) Przygonski
10) Gonclaves

11) Verhoefen
12) Pedrero
13) Ullevalsetter
14) Casteu
15) Curtis
16) Pain
17) Czachor
18) Fretigne
19) Fish
20) Grabham
Thats a very long list of finishers...

Im not so sure, i think we will see many more crashes and non finishers as the semi top is getting wider and more fighting for position will occur over the first 2 weeks.

You're missing some of the 'Knuiman' / 'Pal Anders' types, they might end up doing well with all the crashes / engine swaps upfront.

Imho.
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Old 11-22-2012, 01:37 PM   #95
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Grabbo's Dakar 2013 Kato

Oh, damn. That's sexy!!
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Old 11-22-2012, 07:51 PM   #96
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I'm surprised there has been no mention of Johnny Campbell by anyone. He can navigate with the best, and certainly has the speed of anyone riding on 2 wheels.

Thoughts guys?
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Old 11-22-2012, 08:47 PM   #97
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I'm surprised there has been no mention of Johnny Campbell by anyone. He can navigate with the best, and certainly has the speed of anyone riding on 2 wheels.

Thoughts guys?
He's my hero. But he's not an alien
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Old 11-23-2012, 12:15 AM   #98
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tehdutchie View Post
Thats a very long list of finishers...

Agreed... statistically speaking; a third to half of those names won't be at the finish (natural attrition rate). So to that effect... while I would call deadly's list of "predictions" (of possible finish placings), Bluebull's reads more like a "ranking list/form guide"...? And in with which regards to that - other than the omission of Despres somewhere in the top three - I reckon is not too far off the mark at all.

Im not so sure, i think we will see many more crashes and non finishers as the semi top is getting wider and more fighting for position will occur over the first 2 weeks.

^^^ THIS also... The depth of the field - just below the top five - has broadened; from what was only a year or so ago, maybe just another five perhaps ten riders total; who were a legitimate shot at the podium from the outset. Compared till today*; where more realistically there 10 or 15 riders (other than the alien trio) with the experience and machinery under them, that allows to fight for top five placings each day from the very start. (*four years on and the the formula 450cc rule is finally in full effect!) If we look to the intensity that the Maroc rallye was fought out under just a month ago (with the cream of the top 20 present), and consider Dakar's start list is almost double so strong in talent/competitors... then all bodes for a very hectic battle on the scorebords for positions 6 through 20... possibly moreso than ever!

*Team F5 quotation...

You're missing some of the 'Knuiman' / 'Pal Anders' types, they might end up doing well with all the crashes / engine swaps upfront.

Imho.
And then there are the "sleepers" who poke along at a good pace the first week in positions just outside the top five to ten... keep their noses clean, bikes and body in order and are in good shape to make a push in week two of the rally...

This years DAKAR has the potential to be the best MOTO battle ever...!!! Well, since last year... anyway... or the year before that...? (just like always!?)
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Old 11-23-2012, 03:25 AM   #99
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I agree with ya Troy except one minor point...the attrition rate. It seems to me like the bulk of the non finishers are first timers and or the guys at the back of the pack. The top thirty have a significantly lower percentage attrition rate (not fact just an observation).

Why? Better sorted likely (training, bike, team, experience, etc).

Surprising in some regards as they are traveling at faster speeds. But maybe this helps in the end., less dust, less cars passing, etc


This may, and I say may, be the first year in quite some time that people other than factory ktm have bikes that are on an equal playing field. The HRC and Husky bikes, from what we saw and heard from Maroc, might be as quick as the ktm factory bikes. If so this will likely help level the playing field. In recent years very fast and experienced riders (Jonah, Helder, etc) have quoted they just couldn't keep up on the fast pistes. You look at stage times for those specials and they are only a few seconds back. This makes me think that there are other "aliens" out there but don't have the bike to compete.

2013 has potential for an upset

Aliens getting pushed harder than in recent years maybe? Possible that mistakes could be made by the aliens as a result?



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Old 11-23-2012, 07:54 AM   #100
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bluebull2007 View Post
Deadly,your selection makes a lot of sense, except for Despres. Either he will be out or 1st or 2nd. I also think he might be out. He has been flawless four years in a row - how much longer can he keep the rubber side down at those crazy speeds.

I think Coma is not as fast as he used to be either. Certainly they have the most pressure on them, more especially Cyril, being suspicious about the No 1 and all. Bet you Marc does not agree to swap numbers like they did this year, just to screw with him. Marc's problem is he is nursing an injury, but he should still come back strongly.

Dont forget all the fast young guys who are fighting for a top 10 now in competition with the old Boys:

Zanol
Pain
Sunderland
Przygonski
West (maybe not so young but oh, so fast)
Fishy
Botturi

The more experienced boys being

Gonclaves
Svitco
Faria
Pedrero
Casteau
Viladoms
Verhoefen
Fretigne
Ullevalsetter
Czachor

Thats 18 guys (I might be missing one or two) fighting for 4-10th place, and I think its going to be the really exciting part of the 2014 Dakar.

Then there is are these guys out of AUs and South Africa who arent exactly slow and have considerable experience in their own right.

Grabham
Strange
Curtis
Van Niekerk

Also guys like Pavey and Juan Carlos Salvatierra who seem to battle with mechanicals every year and otherwise could be in the top 20 easily enough. Its one helluva strong fild, the strongest by far in years and years. I think there is going to be a bit of a shake up shake up in the top ranks in 2013, with Cyril going out on a mechanical.

So here is my prediction list:

1) Coma
2) Rodriguez
3) Barreda
4) Viladoms
5) Zanol/Chaleco {I had to edit this, I forgot about Chaleco!}
6) Faria
7) Svitco
8) Sunderland
9) Przygonski
10) Gonclaves

11) Verhoefen
12) Pedrero
13) Ullevalsetter
14) Casteu
15) Curtis
16) Pain
17) Czachor
18) Fretigne
19) Fish
20) Grabham
I think Pizzolito should be added there.
I am trying to be objective , not only because he is Argentinean, but he really can performed in Top 15, and may be Top ten.
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Old 11-23-2012, 08:26 AM   #101
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I think Pizzolito should be added there.
I am trying to be objective , not only because he is Argentinean, but he really can performed in Top 15, and may be Top ten.

Thats good.

Seriously I agree with you and should have included his name, sorry!

I guess my finiashers list is long, but I want to have another look at how it compares at the end of the rally. If it pans out like my prediction, then I definitely need to buy a lotto ticket
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Old 11-23-2012, 09:25 AM   #102
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http://www.moto.it/news/alessandro-b...lla-dakar.html
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Old 11-23-2012, 01:10 PM   #103
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Ahhhh... you need facts...?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Deadly99 View Post
I agree with ya Troy except one minor point...the attrition rate. It seems to me like the bulk of the non finishers are first timers and or the guys at the back of the pack. The top thirty have a significantly lower percentage attrition rate (not fact just an observation).
2012... 9 of the MOTO top 30 starters = DNF
2011... 7 of the MOTO top 30 starters = DNF
2010... 8 of the MOTO top 30 starters = DNF
2009... 7 of the MOTO top 30 starters = DNF

= 26 % DNF rate amongst top 30

if you just count top 20 the percentage is 20% DNF rate
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Old 11-23-2012, 01:58 PM   #104
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A bit dissapointed that noone mentions Thomas Berglund...
Ok, maybe not podium, but got the skills and endurance for top 10.

And Ullevålsetter...13?? C´mon, he´s better than that!





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Old 11-23-2012, 04:16 PM   #105
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A bit dissapointed that noone mentions Thomas Berglund...
Ok, maybe not podium, but got the skills and endurance for top 10.

And Ullevålsetter...13?? C´mon, he´s better than that!





I had Pal down as a wildcard for third

Kinda super steady guy, others mess up and he begins moving up the leaderboard kind of a rider (or so my limited viewpoint on it is ).

43 days ;pynd
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