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Old 06-27-2013, 11:16 AM   #46
monkeythumpa
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Old 06-27-2013, 12:55 PM   #47
RTLover
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Originally Posted by chasssmash View Post
I definitely accept that these raw statistics do not tell the whole story and are definitely generalized.

In a way it's like smoking.Statistically it shortens your life but you can ameliorate it by being in great shape for example.

However I also don't think it makes sense just to say they are completely invalidated if you wear the proper gear or don't drink and ride.

For example I never drink and ride but I do ride in the Winter on ice and snow just to get to work. So while I decrease one risk I increase another.

Personally I like looking at statistics.The one that told me there is a 30 times greater chance of getting shot if you have a gun in your house influenced me to get rid of my guns. Despite the fact that I was careful with them I could clearly see that they posed a substantial risk to me and my kids, one way or another. Also the statistics on the dangers of swimming pools has changed the way I treat my pool. I almost had 2 kids drown in my pool over the years so for me at least the statistics had validity on their surface.

Another example is that I just bought a convertible to do chores with.Things I did exclusively on my bike.My main justification for this expense was that it would reduce my risk going everywhere on the bike. Basically I did cost/benefit analysis and if made sense to reduce my risk. Everyone has a free choice but I think it's good to know the odds either way
I don't follow your logic on most of what you say. Take the example of swimming pools. A pool is not a 'danger', it's how it's used that can render it so. Two kids nearly drowned? Where were the adults who should have been watching them? It's axiomatic that if you don't have a gun in the house, it can't kill you. If you do have one, someone else could come in and shoot you with it but if you keep it locked and/or out of reach of children, negligible risk. About your convertible, well, a truck passing you could kick up a stone and bean you with it or the gas tank could leak and turn you into a torch. You ride to work in snow and ice? Now THAT is a risk. Park that bad boy and take the cage.
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Old 06-27-2013, 01:22 PM   #48
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Bollocks


This isn't science, not even a hint of it.
Tabloid material. Dump it.

So, given the choice the author prefers riding point in Kabul to riding the murderous countrylanes?


Perhaps the author doesn't know the merchant of Tehran. A merchant of Tehran went to the market and to his horror he saw
returned the look, looking amazed. The merchant lost no time. He ran home, saddled his fastest horse and rode like the devil.
All the way to Isfahan, faster than a pony express rider ever did.
At sunset he arrived at the market square in the center. Someone tapped his shoulder. It was
"But I saw you this morning in Tehran", the merchant shouted.
"Indeed you did," said "and most surprised I was as I was told to pick you up today in Isfahan."



Ride me boys, ride...
and be
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Old 06-27-2013, 02:20 PM   #49
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terror_management_theory

Shhh, don't tell anyone, especially the safety police!

They are all going to live until they are 100. They aren't taking risks and don't like to be reminded that risks are being taken by others, because that means the boogeyman must be real.

Organic fed free-range meat carcasses at your local supermarket! Safety rated Toyotas with 270 hp low emissions engines on your superhighways! Large sodas! 8 billion opinions all striving to teach the others how to live better!

Quick, hand over your freedoms so we can finally all be safe!

Progress! Safety! Unity! A brighter tomorrow!

All brought to you by the advanced consciousness of hairless Primates and their clinically clean behavioral traits! No, really, they are just trying to help you live your life better, safer!



Silly humans. You're all going to die. Better on a motorcycle than on the toilet, I say.

GoUglyEarly screwed with this post 06-27-2013 at 02:28 PM
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Old 06-27-2013, 02:55 PM   #50
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Originally Posted by RTLover View Post
I don't follow your logic on most of what you say. Take the example of swimming pools. A pool is not a 'danger', it's how it's used that can render it so. Two kids nearly drowned? Where were the adults who should have been watching them? It's axiomatic that if you don't have a gun in the house, it can't kill you. If you do have one, someone else could come in and shoot you with it but if you keep it locked and/or out of reach of children, negligible risk. About your convertible, well, a truck passing you could kick up a stone and bean you with it or the gas tank could leak and turn you into a torch. You ride to work in snow and ice? Now THAT is a risk. Park that bad boy and take the cage.
I have studied statistics and have a pretty good idea how they work as opposed to several round here.Obviously there are all sorts of caveats around anything.

But I will give you an example of what I'm talking about. Like I said before two children almost drowned in my pool and the reason they almost drowned was not my fault it was their parents lack of vigilance. It takes less than a second for a child to slip beneath the water completely soundlessly. The pool can be full and you wouldn't even notice the child drowning. That is why pools are so dangerous. Statistics confirm this.

This is similar to motorcycling. There are so many risks that cannot be controlled. Drivers who are drunk or on the phone for example. A moments lapse in concentration. A mechanical malfunction. A deer jumping in your way.

I have a friend who thought that he was perfectly safe on a motorcycle. Last year I saw him have a head-on collision with a car. He wasn't drunk it was just a lapse in concentration
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Old 06-27-2013, 10:38 PM   #51
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This is why I feel safer when I ride periodically as opposed to commuting, when I get too familiar with the bike my concentration wanders and that scares me.
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Old 06-28-2013, 01:35 AM   #52
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Originally Posted by Pantah View Post
I'd say the author is writing bullshit for monetary reasons. I was a scout pilot in Vietnam. I've been racing and riding motorcycles since my tour ended. There is no comparison. Not even statistically. I would guess that if you added up all the combat mission days from 1965 to the end Lam Son 719 in April 1971, the crew losses per day would be immeasurably higher than any type of motorcycle riding statistic you could invent. Actually, you could just take the flight crew losses from Lam Son 719 alone.

LS719 was the South Vietnamese attack into Laos. Some twelve weeks worth of campaign. Helicopters from the 101st Airborne flew them in and then tried to get them out after being rebuffed by the NVA. The losses were staggering: 168 helicopters destroyed and over 600 more damaged...

Why people who know nothing about war continually attempt to draw comparisons with everyday living is beyond me. I've never heard of a motorcyclist suffering from post traumatic stress disorder from riding.

Small world... I was flying one of those damaged helicopters at LS719. It's nothing like riding a motorcycle.

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Old 06-28-2013, 06:19 AM   #53
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The risk is there. We can manage it, or mitigate it, whether we're discussing the risks of motorcycling or guns.

Managing risk means taking steps to reduce the chances of the risk/unwanted event occurring, mitigating risk means taking steps to reduce the negative impacts if the risk/unwanted event occurs.

Getting rid of your guns does not reduce the chances of getting shot with a gun if you and other household residents are otherwise sane and sober, and your guns are secured. You have increased your chances of getting shot by an armed intruder by some amount, depending on the nighttime burglary/home invasion rate in your area. Not having ready access to a gun can actually increase your chances of getting shot.

Similarly, not owning or riding a motorcycle eliminates the chances of injury or death from motorcycle riding... but what are the odds of crashing if some day you as an untrained or out of practice rider gets on a bike again?

I wouldn't ride a motorcycle if I didn't take active risk management and mitigation steps, like getting training, not riding impaired, riding within the limits of my skills and the environment, and wearing high quality protective gear. I wouldn't own guns and keep them in my home without appropriate risk management and mitigation strategies. We can choose to be at the correct side of the bell curve, and all the way to that side.

I'm curious about the pool story. It seems obvious that, if two children almost drowned in your pool, your risk management and mitigation strategies are deficient. Are you going to get rid of your pool, or are you going to implement more effective strategies? If the answer is the latter, then what makes your pool different from your guns, in terms of accessing the risk and dealing with it?
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Old 06-28-2013, 06:34 AM   #54
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Originally Posted by ObiJohn View Post

I'm curious about the pool story. It seems obvious that, if two children almost drowned in your pool, your risk management and mitigation strategies are deficient. Are you going to get rid of your pool, or are you going to implement more effective strategies? If the answer is the latter, then what makes your pool different from your guns, in terms of accessing the risk and dealing with it?
Actually this is directly applicable to the original post.

In the first case a three year old was in a floatie about a foot away from her mum.The mum was distracted for a minute and the floatie arbitrarily snapped and the kid slipped to the bottom.In the second case a 6 year old jumped in the pool a foot away from his dad and went straight down.

I am super paranoid about pool safety and on both occasions I noticed and the kid didn't drown but it was close. Basically in one case it was a mechanical issue and in the second case it was parental stupidity in not insuring his kid was wearing a vest. The issue is that a little screw up has such dire result. Really the same as motorcycling. A small error can cause death easily.There aren't many things you can say that about.

I still ride daily and will continue to do so but don't want to kid myself on the dangers involved.

In terms of the pool I bought a high quality fence to replace the crappy one and bought a very safe pool cover (same as good bike gear ) It mitigated some risk but wouldn't have prevented either incident.
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Old 06-28-2013, 06:51 AM   #55
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It is interesting to see how many people want to ignore objective data so they can compartmentalize their own little worlds. It makes one wonder what other areas of science they are prepared to dismiss in order to convince themselves that they are making the best decisions. One must also wonder about their feelings regarding history, considering they only want to go off their own anecdotal experiences.

Still others, will rationalize, I am not part of that statistical group (all motorbikers) because, I don't...[ride at night, drink and ride etc]. And why don't they engage in those behaviors? Because they know the statistics.

For me, statistical data is like any other objective information. It's nothing to be afraid of or hate or dismiss. I am happy to have it, because it allows me to assess the risks and act in ways to eliminate or minimize them. I am not saying that I don't combine this with my own experience and knowledge, just that I don't want to deny the data is relevant to me.

Why would people want to put their fingers in their ears and scream lalalalalala, when they could look at the data and use it to manage their risks. Yes, stats can be manipulated by someone to convince you of a false premise, but that's only if you don't understand statistics.


The irony behind that statement is delicious, thanks.

BTW, Lucifer, statistics show that you'd be better off avoiding multi-lane surface streets during rush hour, rather than interstates.
Your a bit of Troll arent you? Riders CAN control risks by not behaving in the manner of the riders most likely to be wiped out by a car.
Its a fact not a superstition that Motorbikes have always attracted thrill seekers and non conformists,some of them are 100% Darwin candidates and they show up in statistics.

For instance I rode to Alasaka and back on a BMW,the only exciting moment on the road was caused by an idiot who talked his way into going along with us. I kept safe distance from cars,didnt ride too fast,just kept moving along.

But there were MANY chances to put myself in harm's way,I just didnt take them. Those that do,end up in statistics.

As far as getting randomly wiped out by an oncoming car,that can happen in a convertible or any motor vehicle,the slaughter on the hiways continues despite the many layers of padding and straps put into a modern car.

Humans are healthier when they have some risk in their lives,there is 0 guarantee that any of us will be here tomorrow,despite what the ins companies sell you all your life long,you or I can be gone in an instant just walking along and WHAM! Your all gone.

Best enjoy it while you can.
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Old 06-28-2013, 07:00 AM   #56
Foot dragger
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ObiJohn View Post
The risk is there. We can manage it, or mitigate it, whether we're discussing the risks of motorcycling or guns.

Managing risk means taking steps to reduce the chances of the risk/unwanted event occurring, mitigating risk means taking steps to reduce the negative impacts if the risk/unwanted event occurs.

Getting rid of your guns does not reduce the chances of getting shot with a gun if you and other household residents are otherwise sane and sober, and your guns are secured. You have increased your chances of getting shot by an armed intruder by some amount, depending on the nighttime burglary/home invasion rate in your area. Not having ready access to a gun can actually increase your chances of getting shot.

Similarly, not owning or riding a motorcycle eliminates the chances of injury or death from motorcycle riding... but what are the odds of crashing if some day you as an untrained or out of practice rider gets on a bike again?

I wouldn't ride a motorcycle if I didn't take active risk management and mitigation steps, like getting training, not riding impaired, riding within the limits of my skills and the environment, and wearing high quality protective gear. I wouldn't own guns and keep them in my home without appropriate risk management and mitigation strategies. We can choose to be at the correct side of the bell curve, and all the way to that side.

I'm curious about the pool story. It seems obvious that, if two children almost drowned in your pool, your risk management and mitigation strategies are deficient. Are you going to get rid of your pool, or are you going to implement more effective strategies? If the answer is the latter, then what makes your pool different from your guns, in terms of accessing the risk and dealing with it?
I was going to point out the pool thing,kids who drown in pools are not being watched by their parents or caretakers,they're kids,they need watching in a pool.

The gun thing is an old struggle,those who think they're going to jump up at midnight and have an armed shootout with an invader and that will make them safer, have watched too many Gunsmokes in their youth.
Its an imagined fantasy that very rarely goes well in real life,bullets flying,kids screaming,hiding behind couches firing clipfuls at the enemy...
The reality is some people leave guns where kids can play with them,or they get depressed and shoot themselves or their family.

Now its popular to take your gun everywhere you go,get your permit and keep it on you at all times ready for ???????????????
Its a scared sub culture of society.

Its not the pool or the gun,its the human element.
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Old 06-28-2013, 07:01 AM   #57
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I'd say the author is writing bullshit for monetary reasons. I was a scout pilot in Vietnam.
/thread. And thank you for your service.
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Old 06-28-2013, 07:17 AM   #58
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It's a great way to generate interest in a book. Pretty simple to convey on a dust jacket and will get people talking about it for sure.

Along the lines of risk aversion though I read this a while ago that helps put things in perspective.

http://www.davidmyers.org/Brix?pageID=65

You are more likely to kill yourself by eating cheeseburgers than riding a motorcycle. And I do both so I'll race ya!
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Old 06-28-2013, 07:44 AM   #59
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So, I live in NH....near Laconia, so I see all types of riders, from weekend warriors to seasoned bikers to serious ADV riders. Most of this has been said i a few ways, but I (think) I have a new point. Bike Week in NH historically (though I think it has been changing) has brought out the group of bikers that drink way too much and often end up in a ditch bruised or dead.....alcohol is te cause. I also see a lot of sport bikers doing crazystupid stuff all the time. But I also see many people that either don't ride enough, or don't have the skill set to ride well. These people either need more time in the saddle, training, or both.

For me....I've been riding since I was 5 or 6 on minibikes and have owned almost every type of bike out there, I sometimes liken riding to woodworking. I know several carpenters (and I've done it myself) that have lost fingers because they were complacent....what they were doing became too routine. Sometimes I worry about that while riding, that a little fear might be good to keep us on our toes. Finally, and call me a panzy, but I've stopped riding at night for two reasons - large mammals on the road, and too many drunk people that seen to want to hit me, so daytime riding only for me.
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Old 06-28-2013, 10:46 AM   #60
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Riding a bike carries risk... We seek to manage the risk as best we can.

That's what it's about.. Be safe - ride well.
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