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Old 02-14-2008, 06:39 AM   #1
duckbill OP
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Own two bikes? Your going to crash!

According to Progressive Insurance your 70 percent more likely to crash if you switch bikes. This was their conclusion after a five year study and going over two million policies. This study has some holes in the fact that myself and many of my mates have more then one bike insured at a time. One of my friends can switch from a left shift to a right shift, (old Norton), without blinking an eye. Sport bike to dirt bike to race shift track bike all in one weekend is common place. This study sounds like another rate increase to me or is there many of people out there that make a habit of crashing on the street? What about manufacture's test days? I have riden three or four different bikes in one day. The study also stated that sport bike riders can reduce their risk by more than a third just by switching to a cruiser. WTF!
I really hate insurance companies.
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Old 02-14-2008, 06:46 AM   #2
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Not defending the insurance companies, because I think they often overpriced and are money making machines. But, most of their numbers are based on cold hard statistics. In this case, it's a believable statistic. Many people that just own one bike, never ride it. I would think that overall, the people that have two bikes are shown to log significantly more hours. With those hours, comes increased probability of a crash. Even though, for someone with many hours under his belt has less chance of a crash per hour ridden.
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Old 02-14-2008, 06:59 AM   #3
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Sounds reasonable to me.

Some poor guy moves up from his first bike to a larger machine and bins it.

I read apocryphal stories like that all the time on the tubes.

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Old 02-14-2008, 07:13 AM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pdoege
Sounds reasonable to me.

Some poor guy moves up from his first bike to a larger machine and bins it.
Lies, damn lies and statistics.

The above situation seems probable, but I don't see myself fitting that situation. What happens to the accident rate for 2 bike owners over time? Is my rate lower because I've had MBS (Multiple Bike Syndrome) for over a decade? I'd like to see longitudinal data on the rate per mile (Like they have that). I'd also be interested to see data on owners of more than 2 bikes - what happens to my accident rate at 5 scoots? Am I more or less likely to crash per mile? Am at more risk if I also ride a pedal bike? It will be interesting to see the results of the pending accident and crash study ("new Hurt report") when they fininsh in a few years.

There is always room for better statistics.
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Old 02-14-2008, 07:29 AM   #5
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Oh yeah?

Would you mind citing your sources? I suspect misinterpretation.

I read a variant of this at least a decade ago that sounds a bit more realistic. It's not having multiple bikes that increases your chances of a crash, it's changing bikes. Like getting a new one. (No I can't cite my sources. It was a long time ago!)

According to the uncited study I read back in the last century the chances of an accident in the first six months of owning a bike were approximately twice those of a rider who's had the bike more than six months. Much of this can be attributed to newbies of course, but even adjusting the data for previous bike ownership showed a large spike in claims in the first six months of owning a new bike.

I have Progressive insurance and they charge A lOT LESS for the second (and 3rd) bike(s). If multiple bike ownership significantly increases the chances of an accident, I doubt they'd do that. Especially if it was their data. I get a multiple bike discount as well as a 'no claims' discount. How about you?

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Old 02-14-2008, 07:59 AM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Revill
Would you mind citing your sources? I suspect misinterpretation.
I have Progressive insurance and they charge A lOT LESS for the second (and 3rd) bike(s). If multiple bike ownership significantly increases the chances of an accident, I doubt they'd do that. Especially if it was their data. I get a multiple bike discount as well as a 'no claims' discount. How about you?

Revill
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I do not receive any discounts for the four motorcycles on my policy and I have been accedent free for ~ 30 years of riding, (no claims). This has been a sore point with me because I cannot ride more then one bike at a time so who are they insuring, me or the bike?
As far as so called "new" riders are concerned, experienced riders should have less accedents but the report points at any rider changing bikes regardless of experience.

Read it here...
http://www.motorcycle-usa.com/Articl...ID=5927&Page=1

duckbill screwed with this post 02-14-2008 at 08:04 AM
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Old 02-14-2008, 08:23 AM   #7
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Quote:
I would think that overall, the people that have two bikes are shown to log significantly more hours. With those hours, comes increased probability of a crash. Even though, for someone with many hours under his belt has less chance of a crash per hour ridden.
Well-said.

I own two bikes, but I rode over 10,000 miles in seven months, last year.

I would think people who own more than one bike are typically more enthusiastic about riding, and thus tend to put more miles in the saddle than single bike owners in general.
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DRZ400SK4 screwed with this post 02-15-2008 at 08:54 AM
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Old 02-14-2008, 08:34 AM   #8
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I own seven bikes.

And I go from standard shift on my street bikes to reverse pattern on my track bike. Put that one in your pipe, Progressive, and smoke it!

Guess I'm screwed!
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Old 02-14-2008, 09:03 AM   #9
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I'm a retired Allstate agent and 10 or 12 years ago I assisted in setting up a new M/C policy for them in Florida. Some non-riding VP wanted to add a discount for riding less than 5K a year. I used stats from the AMA that showed if you ride under so many miles a year (sorry I can't remember the number) you would be more likely to be involved in a crash.
My wife and I have 5 bikes insured, with just 2 riders, any my insurance is dirt cheep. The only discount we get are, multi bike, support with our car policy and claim free. The only sur-charge is for high theft bikes. An agent who rides can help you set up the correct policy for a fair price. Shop around companies base their price on their experience. Thats why males under 21 on sport bikes cost so much. Your age group and bike type cost them money you pay more money.
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Old 02-14-2008, 09:46 AM   #10
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Seems to me that this is the gist of the report: "The less familiar you are with your bike, the more likely you are to be involved in a collision, regardless of your experience." The premise doesn't seem at all surprising. Take it easy on a new bike until you get used to riding it -- that sounds like good advice to me.

I would add that I would be interested to see how the statistics play out for a rider who rides more than one familiar bike on a regular basis. In other words, does someone who rides the same two (or three, or seven) bikes on a regular basis face the same increased risk as someone who rides only Bike A for months or years and then trades it in and starts riding only Bike B?

That's what I hate about these insurance company press releases -- they never tell the whole story.

650VTwin screwed with this post 02-14-2008 at 09:52 AM Reason: Adding a thought
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Old 02-14-2008, 09:50 AM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mikem9
Not defending the insurance companies, because I think they often overpriced and are money making machines. But, most of their numbers are based on cold hard statistics. In this case, it's a believable statistic. Many people that just own one bike, never ride it. I would think that overall, the people that have two bikes are shown to log significantly more hours. With those hours, comes increased probability of a crash. Even though, for someone with many hours under his belt has less chance of a crash per hour ridden.
Not to knock your logic, but statistics is anything but "hard" or proven. They're "best guestimations" based on population samples and statistic samples- generally with an accepted margin of error.

but- that "technicality" out of the way, I agree with you good sir.
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Old 02-14-2008, 10:03 AM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mikem9
Not defending the insurance companies, because I think they often overpriced and are money making machines. But, most of their numbers are based on cold hard statistics. In this case, it's a believable statistic. Many people that just own one bike, never ride it. I would think that overall, the people that have two bikes are shown to log significantly more hours. With those hours, comes increased probability of a crash. Even though, for someone with many hours under his belt has less chance of a crash per hour ridden.
This very good observation points out another problem with the data that the insurance companies cite: the usefulness of the available statistical information is hampered by the fact that nobody has any good exposure data. The Insurance Institute for Highway Safety is fond of citing crash rates per vehicle mile traveled (VMT), but even NHTSA acknowledges that VMT statistics are estimates at best and wild guesses at worst -- some states don't even try to gather VMT statistics.

What does this mean? We know about how many crashes occur taking all riders on all machines in all conditions into account, but what would be much more helpful would be to know HOW OFTEN crashes occur under specific circumstances. For example, how does the crash rate per mile (or per hour of riding) compare for multi-bike owners vs. single bike owners, or for drunk riders vs. sober riders, or for miles ridden at night vs. during the day, or on sportsbikes vs. cruisers? THAT is the kind of information that would be helpful for people in making choices about what, when, how, and where to ride.
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Old 02-14-2008, 10:14 AM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Revill
I have Progressive insurance and they charge A lOT LESS for the second (and 3rd) bike(s). If multiple bike ownership significantly increases the chances of an accident, I doubt they'd do that.
Ditto.

I just shopped around and of the firms I looked at, Progressive was the only one that gave a sizeable mutli-bike discount.
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Old 02-14-2008, 01:24 PM   #14
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maybe they just didn't get the memo yet?
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Old 02-14-2008, 01:59 PM   #15
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While most of us reading this post are understandably upset with the supposed logic used by insurance companies to arrive at their exorbitant rates, we probably don't see the whole picture. To the best of their ability (if they are honestly trying - and that is another subject worthy of pursuit in another thread), they are looking at all motorcyclists, including those who have little interest in improving their riding skills.

Observing those who post in this forum, it is apparent most are here to learn something about improving their riding skills and techniques. But there are other forums that some riders find more attractive, that give far more attention to discussing the latest chrome gadgets to bolt onto the owner's bike. While we rarely find those riders posting on this forum, thus their opinions are not expressed for our edification (and amusement), nevertheless the insurance companies must include them in their statistics. We have to face the fact that whenever we venture out on two wheels, regardless what sort of bike connects them, the general public - and insurance companies - lump us all together (with a few exceptions, such as crotch rockets that insurance companies can single out for even higher rates), and we all get smeared with the same color paint. So broad-based statistics will usually work against us. As long as it makes a profit for the insurance companies, don't expect it to change.
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