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Old 01-02-2013, 07:44 PM   #1876
rocker59
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Originally Posted by kirb View Post
So what...double it? That,s why it's called spit balling. There is over 1 mil to play with. How would you split it?
Putting your $1M into the 300 bikes would move the margin up to about 16%.

That would be a minimum margin I'd expect to see on a premium product.
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Old 01-02-2013, 08:03 PM   #1877
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Originally Posted by ph0rk View Post
Motus currently has 11 dealers, if we assume 300 bikes then each dealer needs to sell 27 of these bikes. A year.
First off, I want Motus to succeed even if I can never afford one.

I have also read some articles about their marketing plan. But if they think that just 11 dealers will sell 300 bikes averaging 27 per dealer, they will unfortunately not succeed. 5-10 bikes per year per dealer is more realistic. And even that might be tough for some dealers in some markets. They will need more dealers to achieve their sales goals.

The Ducati/Triumph dealership I frequent used to sell MV Agusta. Now there is a brand with a heritage, more than one model, great reviews in the press and an obvious lust factor. But the dealer was only able to sell something like 3 or 4 bikes in two years and dropped the marque. Now that dealer did change ownership and moved to bigger quarters after the MV fiasco, but I am not sure if the deeper pockets of the new owners would have faired much better. They certainly haven't picked up MV again.

It will certainly be interesting to see what happens when and if Motus ever reaches production. Hell, in 10-20 years we may be looking back at Motus as an American success story or we will be saying Motus who?

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Old 01-02-2013, 08:17 PM   #1878
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Originally Posted by DAKEZ View Post
You know not of which you speak. It has been a LONG time since the MoCo has used fiberglass.
Plastic. FRP. Whatever. They have thier Tomahawk plant for producing bags and fairings...

You know that.

I guess you don't know that the MoCo uses the word "fiberglass" on its own website:

But you should.



http://www.harley-davidson.com/en_US.../tomahawk.html
("Employees manufacture plastic and fiberglass parts, including saddlebags, and windshields.")

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Old 01-03-2013, 05:25 AM   #1879
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Originally Posted by RedRocket View Post
What do you expect, that they'll hold the loan notes on bikes themselves? It's a little premature to be looking for Motus Financial Services.
Who does financing for Guzzi or Triumph? A bank probably, just like Motus.
Triumph uses Freedom Road Financial, the same lender that is working with Motus. Even my new Yamaha was financed thru GE.
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Old 01-03-2013, 06:27 AM   #1880
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rick G View Post
First off, I want Motus to succeed even if I can never afford one.

I have also read some articles about their marketing plan. But if they think that just 11 dealers will sell 300 bikes averaging 27 per dealer, they will unfortunately not succeed. 5-10 bikes per year per dealer is more realistic. And even that might be tough for some dealers in some markets. They will need more dealers to achieve their sales goals.
I want them to succeed too, I'm just doubtful.


If you look at their dealer locations, it is hard to imagine where they could fit more. Maybe Chicago and Denver, perhaps.

In most smaller metro areas it's going to be a lot harder to sell more than one or two bikes in that price range, especially if you look at maps of concentrations of higher incomes ( http://www.arcgis.com/home/webmap/vi...005e1dc2c48049 ). For people earning less than 100k (a category I am squarely in, if in the lower fraction), ~30k is a large chunk of money, and it is hard to argue that a Motus is "equal" to an FJR and a three month trip. People that want pure toys are probably as likely to get something less touring-capable (and "sexier").

I hate to make a car analogy, but I must: this scenario would be like an American company coming up with a sedan that is as technically capable as a Honda accord or 3 series BMW at a cost of around $60k, where the only real selling point is the brand and image (the car itself isn't likely to outperform all sedans, it is a robust market segment. Is it luxury? hyper luxury? exotic?)

Only instead 100,000+ sedans sold per year in the USA there are, what? 400 new 1000cc+ sport touring bikes sold per year in the USA? 600?

in 2011, all "on highway" bikes tallied to 312,124 bikes. What percentage of that is big sport-tourers (especially once full dress tourers are subtracted back out - Motus won't be snagging many Goldwing or RT sales)? 1%?

If anyone has better industry data that can be shared, please do - I can't find a "units sold" figure for any of the big four in the USA.
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Old 01-03-2013, 09:37 AM   #1881
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Originally Posted by jmlmjmjm View Post
Says who? Every Polaris business report claims better and better "on road" sales growth. Indian can't account for much but they are busy developing a "new" Indian (engine at least) to be released at Daytona later this year.
Business reports tell shareholders and analysis what they want to hear. Trust your eyes. I see very few Victory motorcycles on the road around Chicago and Milwaukee or at major rallies.
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Old 01-03-2013, 09:41 AM   #1882
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Originally Posted by rocker59 View Post
I'm guessing that HD probably still makes it's own bags at its fiberglass factory, alongside its fairings.
Harley stopped using fiberglass 2006, about the same time they moved away from carburetors.
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Old 01-03-2013, 09:56 AM   #1883
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Originally Posted by Geoff View Post
. Trust your eyes. I see very few Victory motorcycles on the road around Chicago and Milwaukee or at major rallies.
Don't forget that there are 200,000 HD's per year for 20+ years? You'll never see a lot of Victorys .
Most of those 4MILLION Harley's look pretty similar .
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Old 01-03-2013, 11:33 AM   #1884
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Originally Posted by RedRocket View Post
Don't forget that there are 200,000 HD's per year for 20+ years? You'll never see a lot of Victorys .
Most of those 4MILLION Harley's look pretty similar .
I hear you. Lots of Harleys on the road, most of which look and sound the same except for the V-Rod.
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Old 01-03-2013, 11:48 AM   #1885
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ph0rk View Post
I want them to succeed too, I'm just doubtful.


If you look at their dealer locations, it is hard to imagine where they could fit more. Maybe Chicago and Denver, perhaps.

In most smaller metro areas it's going to be a lot harder to sell more than one or two bikes in that price range, especially if you look at maps of concentrations of higher incomes ( http://www.arcgis.com/home/webmap/vi...005e1dc2c48049 ). For people earning less than 100k (a category I am squarely in, if in the lower fraction), ~30k is a large chunk of money, and it is hard to argue that a Motus is "equal" to an FJR and a three month trip. People that want pure toys are probably as likely to get something less touring-capable (and "sexier").

I hate to make a car analogy, but I must: this scenario would be like an American company coming up with a sedan that is as technically capable as a Honda accord or 3 series BMW at a cost of around $60k, where the only real selling point is the brand and image (the car itself isn't likely to outperform all sedans, it is a robust market segment. Is it luxury? hyper luxury? exotic?)

Only instead 100,000+ sedans sold per year in the USA there are, what? 400 new 1000cc+ sport touring bikes sold per year in the USA? 600?

in 2011, all "on highway" bikes tallied to 312,124 bikes. What percentage of that is big sport-tourers (especially once full dress tourers are subtracted back out - Motus won't be snagging many Goldwing or RT sales)? 1%?

If anyone has better industry data that can be shared, please do - I can't find a "units sold" figure for any of the big four in the USA.
The annual reports for the BIG 4 list total North American units sold, but not USA specific. For 2011:

Honda: 185K units
Yamaha: 64K units
Kawasaki: 118K units
Suzuki: 50K units
(Not a MOTUS competitor, but) Harley: 150.9K units

Unfortunately, it does not break down the type of bike, i.e. - sport, tour, dirt, atv, etc. Still interesting data though.

Links:
Honda (page 14): http://world.honda.com/investors/lib...11ar-all-e.pdf
Yamaha (page 6): http://www.yamaha-motor.co.jp/global...11annual-e.pdf
Kawasaki (page22): http://www.khi.co.jp/ir/news/ar2011.pdf
Suzuki (page 10): http://www.globalsuzuki.com/ir/libra...11/2011all.pdf
Harley (page 20): http://www.harley-davidson.com/en_US...Annual2011.pdf
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Old 01-03-2013, 11:57 AM   #1886
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Hrm, looks more like 50k units in North America for Suzuki (motorcycles, page 10)


502,000 units appears to be all motorcycle sales in North America (?)


Whoa, 11,971,000 bikes sold in India per year? Another 13 million in ASEAN countries? Holy shit. I wouldn't give a fuck about the North American market, either if I were them.
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Old 01-03-2013, 12:11 PM   #1887
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Originally Posted by ph0rk View Post
Hrm, looks more like 50k units in North America for Suzuki (motorcycles, page 10)


502,000 units appears to be all motorcycle sales in North America (?)


Whoa, 11,971,000 bikes sold in India per year? Another 13 million in ASEAN countries? Holy shit. I wouldn't give a fuck about the North American market, either if I were them.
Oops! You are correct. Post updated accordingly.

Yep, the numbers from these reports are quite interesting. Amazing how many bikes are sold in other markets. IMHO, I think it is because they are used more for transportation and utility there as opposed to mostly recreation here.
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Old 01-03-2013, 12:44 PM   #1888
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Originally Posted by Geoff View Post
Business reports tell shareholders and analysis what they want to hear. Trust your eyes. I see very few Victory motorcycles on the road around Chicago and Milwaukee or at major rallies.
What does this have to do with your original contention that "Polaris is feeling a pinch from Indian?"

As I asked, "says who?"
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Old 01-03-2013, 01:07 PM   #1889
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The mental masturbation in this thread is entertaining

That is all, carry on
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Old 01-03-2013, 02:16 PM   #1890
rocker59
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Originally Posted by Geoff View Post
Harley stopped using fiberglass 2006, about the same time they moved away from carburetors.
Good for them, and not the point of my post.

I was simply pointing out that HD has Tomahawk, a factory they bought in 1963 for the express purpose of building bags and fairings.

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