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Old 08-26-2012, 12:01 PM   #1756
ElusivePedro OP
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Laugh And of course, I am sure you can ALL remember...

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Old 08-26-2012, 12:15 PM   #1757
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From my buddy that works with this stuff...

Hurricane Watch was issued early this morning and Hurricane warnings may go up this evening.

Visible satellite and imagery suggest that Isaac is gradually becoming better organized. There are indications of inner core development with increased convection near and over the center...and a partial eyewall is in evidence on radar imagery. The banding features have become more distinct over the northern and eastern semicircles of the circulation. The current intensity estimate is held at 60 mph pending observations from an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft that should be in the center shortly.

Isaac continues to exhibit a well-defined upper-level outflow pattern...and gradual strengthening is likely as the cyclone traverses the eastern Gulf of Mexico over the next couple of days. The official wind speed forecast is similar to the previous NHC forecast and is also close to the latest statistical-dynamical guidance.

The track forecast beyond day 2 has become problematic. Dynamic models depict the cyclone moving into a break in the subtropical ridge north of the Gulf Coast in about 72 hours. However there is a large spread among the more reliable track models.

The official track forecast is moved a bit to the west of the previous one. This requires an extension of the Hurricane Watch westward along the Louisiana coast. It should be noted that there is greater than usual uncertainty in the track forecast.

Throughout the period...it is important not to focus on the exact forecast track since significant hazards extend well away from the center.

Expectations are that a frontal boundary moving Southeast from Texas, Oklahoma and Arkansas regions will have an effect on Isaac. It is likely that the frontal boundary will be near enough to redirect Isaac’s track east again. That scenario is likely to happen.

Nonetheless, our coastal regions should begin to see increase tide levels, rip currents and rougher wave actions Monday or Monday afternoon.
Tonight
Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Bays and coastal waterways choppy to rough.

Monday
Tropical storm conditions possible. Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots increasing to 25 to 30 knots in the afternoon. Gusts up to 38 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Bays and coastal waterways rough. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Monday Night
Tropical storm conditions possible with hurricane conditions also possible. Northeast winds 35 to 45 knots with gusts to around 50 knots. Seas 7 to 10 feet building to 11 to 15 feet after midnight. Bays and coastal waterways very rough. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Tuesday
Hurricane conditions possible. East winds 40 to 50 knots with gusts to around 60 knots increasing to 55 to 65 knots with gusts to around 75 knots in the afternoon. Seas 13 to 18 feet building to 15 to 21 feet in the afternoon. Bays and coastal waterways very rough. Showers and thunderstorms.

Tuesday Night
Hurricane conditions possible. Showers and thunderstorms likely.

Wednesday
Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers and thunderstorms likely.

Wednesday Night
Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 6 to 9 feet. Bays and coastal waterways choppy to rough. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
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Old 08-26-2012, 02:47 PM   #1758
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Gorgeous!

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Old 08-26-2012, 02:51 PM   #1759
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ElusivePedro View Post
Hurricane Watch was issued early this morning and Hurricane warnings may go up this evening.

Visible satellite and imagery suggest that Isaac is gradually becoming better organized. There are indications of inner core development with increased convection near and over the center...and a partial eyewall is in evidence on radar imagery. The banding features have become more distinct over the northern and eastern semicircles of the circulation. The current intensity estimate is held at 60 mph pending observations from an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft that should be in the center shortly.

Isaac continues to exhibit a well-defined upper-level outflow pattern...and gradual strengthening is likely as the cyclone traverses the eastern Gulf of Mexico over the next couple of days. The official wind speed forecast is similar to the previous NHC forecast and is also close to the latest statistical-dynamical guidance.

The track forecast beyond day 2 has become problematic. Dynamic models depict the cyclone moving into a break in the subtropical ridge north of the Gulf Coast in about 72 hours. However there is a large spread among the more reliable track models.

The official track forecast is moved a bit to the west of the previous one. This requires an extension of the Hurricane Watch westward along the Louisiana coast. It should be noted that there is greater than usual uncertainty in the track forecast.

Throughout the period...it is important not to focus on the exact forecast track since significant hazards extend well away from the center.

Expectations are that a frontal boundary moving Southeast from Texas, Oklahoma and Arkansas regions will have an effect on Isaac. It is likely that the frontal boundary will be near enough to redirect Isaac’s track east again. That scenario is likely to happen.

Nonetheless, our coastal regions should begin to see increase tide levels, rip currents and rougher wave actions Monday or Monday afternoon.
Tonight
Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Bays and coastal waterways choppy to rough.

Monday
Tropical storm conditions possible. Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots increasing to 25 to 30 knots in the afternoon. Gusts up to 38 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Bays and coastal waterways rough. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Monday Night
Tropical storm conditions possible with hurricane conditions also possible. Northeast winds 35 to 45 knots with gusts to around 50 knots. Seas 7 to 10 feet building to 11 to 15 feet after midnight. Bays and coastal waterways very rough. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Tuesday
Hurricane conditions possible. East winds 40 to 50 knots with gusts to around 60 knots increasing to 55 to 65 knots with gusts to around 75 knots in the afternoon. Seas 13 to 18 feet building to 15 to 21 feet in the afternoon. Bays and coastal waterways very rough. Showers and thunderstorms.

Tuesday Night
Hurricane conditions possible. Showers and thunderstorms likely.

Wednesday
Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers and thunderstorms likely.

Wednesday Night
Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 6 to 9 feet. Bays and coastal waterways choppy to rough. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Pete!!,
Got boat squared away in the slip in Pcola yesterday. Today we got our window coverings and storm shutters out 8 years later!

The GFS and European models now have it going west of us with a continuing trend westward (hopefully). NHC is still being conservative with its forcast but they have awakened the folks over in SELA!

Looks like it could be a CAT 2 = bad

More later!
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Old 08-26-2012, 07:21 PM   #1760
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Great ride yesterday with Barney, we covered a good bit of the north end of the famous Robbie Robinson loop. The banana spiders are definitely out, Barney led the way so he made the first encounters


These things don't give me the heebie-jeebies quite as bad as they used to, but the idea of them crawling around on me or my bike still makes me a mite nervous. Barney, however, didn't mind too much


We stopped at a sandbar for a sunset inspection and a snack. See this bag? It's chock full of WIN


That's the first time I've ever had bacon jerky and buddy you better believe it won't be the last. That stuff is fit to eat We BSed, killed that bag of jerky, and enjoyed sunset on Coldwater Creek


Many thanks for leading me around the forest Barney--and for the bacon jerky as well. You know I hafta say it: let's do it again!


After the ride I went to Mug's and got TaterTotted...bacon jerky during the ride and tots afterward, what could be better?
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ineptizoid screwed with this post 08-26-2012 at 07:30 PM
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Old 08-26-2012, 08:04 PM   #1761
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Good ride yesterday Inept. Bacon jerky has to be one of mankinds greatest achievements.
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Old 08-26-2012, 08:12 PM   #1762
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We rode too!

Got off to a late start but we ride too...

















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Old 08-26-2012, 08:19 PM   #1763
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Looks like ya'll are enjoying those new bikes.
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Old 08-26-2012, 08:24 PM   #1764
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Looks like ya'll are enjoying those new bikes.
We sure are...too bad we can't get enough free time to ride here lately. But we are working on it.
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Old 08-26-2012, 08:33 PM   #1765
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Looks like ya'll are enjoying those new bikes.
Lovin every minute of it... Cooler temps are on the way and I can't wait! Blackwater , Bacon Jerky, and Brownies...
Lets get together sometime and blaze some trails
...
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Old 08-26-2012, 08:47 PM   #1766
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Originally Posted by TitaniumKaren View Post
Lovin every minute of it... Cooler temps are on the way and I can't wait! Blackwater , Bacon Jerky, and Brownies...
Lets get together sometime and blaze some trails
...
Bacon jerky + brownies = double win! Lets ride.
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Old 08-26-2012, 09:05 PM   #1767
ineptizoid
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Hey Davebert's avatar looks eerily familiar, for some strange reason

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Old 08-27-2012, 04:38 AM   #1768
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ineptizoid View Post
Hey Davebert's avatar looks eerily familiar, for some strange reason

What's it code for?
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Old 08-27-2012, 05:17 AM   #1769
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Never heard of bacon jerky....I will be getting some of that though. If I don't kill myself on the TAT next month, I will be back over there in BW riding with you guys and gals.....I leave for NM on Friday!
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Old 08-27-2012, 05:54 AM   #1770
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ineptizoid View Post
Hey Davebert's avatar looks eerily familiar, for some strange reason

I think it make him look much younger than he does in person....
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