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Old 10-29-2013, 07:39 PM   #5236
Moronic
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What title chance remains for Lorenzo?

Piece here at autosport.com where Lorenzo talks up his recent form - and justifiably.

But what chance does he really have?

Even if Lorenzo wins at Valencia, he needs from Marquez a dnf or a finish of fifth or worse.

It seems unlikely enough Marquez would finish no higher than fifth. But then think about who might be in front of him.

Lorenzo, yes, and Rossi would have to lift his game a lot and slot in there. That pushes Marquez to third. Title winner.

Who else? On current form, Pedrosa is a possibility. Next in line are Bautista and Bradl.

But hang on: all three are on Hondas. Would any of them refuse to concede a place to Marquez, even in the unlikely event he needed help to get fourth?

And after that? It is Crutchlow and Smith.

Seems to me Lorenzo would need an all-Yamaha podium with Smith joining Rossi and Crutchlow in the top four to deny Marquez a title victory if he finished.

So, then there are the possibilities for a non-finish from Marquez:

1. torpedoed in the first turn or soon afterwards;

2. brought down in an attempted overtake;

3. lose it all by himself in a bid for the win, or from a failure of concentration while riding for points;

4. mechanical failure.


If it is going to happen I'd be thinking 1 or 2. But while neither is likely, both are also difficult to protect oneself from while racing in a free and spontaneous manner.

Particularly 2. Marquez has everything to lose from bashing fairings or 'bars in this race.

Thoughts?
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Old 10-29-2013, 07:56 PM   #5237
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Couldn't agree with you more. Every race Marc has finished, he's finished on the podium. To bet against him if he's healthy is foolish. If he's healthy and doesn't get torpedoed he's going to win the title.
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Old 10-29-2013, 09:00 PM   #5238
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Originally Posted by mdubya View Post
It is going to be interesting to see how it goes, that is for sure.

I have read that they really don't need more than an extra 2 litres of fuel to really let the motors rip, but they will have 4 to play with. And they will have the extra soft tire. Not sure how that will go with the extra fuel/power and the spec electronics which should be less smooth for tire life.

Qualifying will be great.

The PR Honda has lots of potential, too.

I had thought they were doing away with that softer tire option. Not a fan of it. Gives guys like Esparago one lap to get a good grid position and then drop like a rock after 1 lap of the race. One would think the open class bikes would have enough potential with the extra fuel they can use to not need a different tire. I understand the reasoning for the tire rule but for me tires are too big of a potential performance enhancement and slightly variable. JMO.
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Old 10-29-2013, 09:46 PM   #5239
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Lorenzo needs to let Marq lead from the start , and then apply pressure from behind in the hope Marq might make a mistake.

As we saw in Moto3 last weekend , anything can happen , with the top 2 riders in the championship failing/falling , one of them taken out by another rider and the other at their on hand.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Moronic View Post
Piece here at autosport.com where Lorenzo talks up his recent form - and justifiably.

But what chance does he really have?

Even if Lorenzo wins at Valencia, he needs from Marquez a dnf or a finish of fifth or worse.

It seems unlikely enough Marquez would finish no higher than fifth. But then think about who might be in front of him.

Lorenzo, yes, and Rossi would have to lift his game a lot and slot in there. That pushes Marquez to third. Title winner.

Who else? On current form, Pedrosa is a possibility. Next in line are Bautista and Bradl.

But hang on: all three are on Hondas. Would any of them refuse to concede a place to Marquez, even in the unlikely event he needed help to get fourth?

And after that? It is Crutchlow and Smith.

Seems to me Lorenzo would need an all-Yamaha podium with Smith joining Rossi and Crutchlow in the top four to deny Marquez a title victory if he finished.

So, then there are the possibilities for a non-finish from Marquez:

1. torpedoed in the first turn or soon afterwards;

2. brought down in an attempted overtake;

3. lose it all by himself in a bid for the win, or from a failure of concentration while riding for points;

4. mechanical failure.


If it is going to happen I'd be thinking 1 or 2. But while neither is likely, both are also difficult to protect oneself from while racing in a free and spontaneous manner.

Particularly 2. Marquez has everything to lose from bashing fairings or 'bars in this race.

Thoughts?
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Old 10-29-2013, 09:48 PM   #5240
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Originally Posted by kbroderick View Post
IMO, each team should be allowed to write its own software with one limitation: no sensors that provide details about position on track. Wheelspeed, lean angle, etc. are all fair game, but no having different settings for different sectors or turns. The idea of programming the bike to react a certain way on a certain turn or sector of the track is never going to trickle down to street bikes (unless they start selling a "Northeast Roads Programming Package" and a "Tail of the Dragon" package, etc.) but having a bike that can adjust on the fly to varying road conditions could be pretty damn cool.

I'd also be interested in a defined spec for bike <-> ECU interaction that could, at least in theory, allow a CRT-type rule for ECUs so that (at least in principle) a kick-ass software package wouldn't result in a one-manufacturer race for the top spots, but I don't see the big-budget teams liking that idea much, as they've got too much invested in their software.
Y
But then again, I'm not Dorna.
I agree with all that. I really dislike the track position guidance. Was it last year that Nicky's bike was screwed because it was reading the wrong position sensors? Just about crashed him I think. In any case I'm no fan of that tech, and good point that there's not any bleed down to street applications. Or is there? Full auto cars driving around California with a better accident percentage than humans. Flawless I believe.
Oh well; it still sucks.
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Old 10-29-2013, 10:12 PM   #5241
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The wonders of hindsight.
More heat than light. I enjoy some Bedlam articles, but this one is just invective looking for a place to discharge.

Only at the END of a long rage against Dorna;
Quote:
it should not be forgotten that the whole debacle stems from Bridgestone supplying an inferior product... Instead of finding a way to address that problem, the sports administrators chose to interfere with the riders and regulations.
So, Bridgestone was supposed to make better tires magically appear? Even with 20/20 hindsight, how could that problem have been resolved in a few hours without changing the rules?
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Old 10-29-2013, 11:18 PM   #5242
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So, Bridgestone was supposed to make better tires magically appear? Even with 20/20 hindsight, how could that problem have been resolved in a few hours without changing the rules?
Bstone had screwed up weeks or even months before the actual race weekend. Yep, surely they just had to make do with what they΄ve got.

And the article was more than a bit harsh, and contained a few errors as well. But I agree with the general principle: this had a massive impact on the championship fight, and Dorna came out of it all looking like a true bunch of clowns.
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Old 10-30-2013, 04:08 AM   #5243
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All I can say is Moto GP is beginning to smell a lot like NAPCAR and F-1.

Let's just manipulate every thing until the piloto has nothing more to do than twist the throttle and hang on.

I want them to take a giant step back to racing where the teams have some latitude to tune the machines , there are no control electronics, no BS tire games .
This so called equal playing field stuff makes me

Yeah, let's all sit back and wait for this worldwide computer fad to fade away.
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Old 10-30-2013, 04:16 AM   #5244
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More heat than light. I enjoy some Bedlam articles, but this one is just invective looking for a place to discharge.

Only at the END of a long rage against Dorna;

So, Bridgestone was supposed to make better tires magically appear? Even with 20/20 hindsight, how could that problem have been resolved in a few hours without changing the rules?
Typical Boris. He's a wanker.
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Old 10-30-2013, 04:34 AM   #5245
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Typical Boris. He's a wanker.
Attention seeking Wanker that it..............
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Old 10-30-2013, 04:36 AM   #5246
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Not looking forward to the Monday after the last race

Gonna be a loooong off season................
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Old 10-30-2013, 04:44 AM   #5247
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Originally Posted by kbroderick View Post
IMO, each team should be allowed to write its own software with one limitation: no sensors that provide details about position on track. Wheelspeed, lean angle, etc. are all fair game, but no having different settings for different sectors or turns. The idea of programming the bike to react a certain way on a certain turn or sector of the track is never going to trickle down to street bikes (unless they start selling a "Northeast Roads Programming Package" and a "Tail of the Dragon" package, etc.) but having a bike that can adjust on the fly to varying road conditions could be pretty damn cool.

1. There is no GPS input into the ECU, so the way the software engineers calculate it is by comparing wheel speed, lean angle, gear, throttle position and several other factors against an internal data map of the track. They are then using the timing loops as calibration on each lap.

In other words, you can't remove positional awareness from the software unless you mandate spec software. Which is (hopefully) what Dorna will do in 2017.

2. Positional awareness is a logical step in vehicle electronics. GPS is becoming ubiquitous, and more and more mapping data is becoming available, complete with ever more detail on the roads themselves. I expect road-specific electronics to make their way into high-end cars in a couple of years times, and onto bikes in 5-10 years time. It's a great USP for a high-end sports bike, and the data exists. The programming involved is relatively trivial, and there is more and more data available and being shared. Audi is already trialling cars which communicate with each other in Germany, passing traffic data and data about roads between specially adapted vehicles, and as sensors increase on vehicles, the amount of data sent will increase. Combine that with weather data and adaptive algorithms and you have vehicles with software mappings for every corner in the world.
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Old 10-30-2013, 05:09 AM   #5248
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Old 10-30-2013, 06:35 AM   #5249
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Edit: Krop has it covered.
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Old 10-30-2013, 06:45 AM   #5250
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I had thought they were doing away with that softer tire option. Not a fan of it. Gives guys like Esparago one lap to get a good grid position and then drop like a rock after 1 lap of the race. One would think the open class bikes would have enough potential with the extra fuel they can use to not need a different tire. I understand the reasoning for the tire rule but for me tires are too big of a potential performance enhancement and slightly variable. JMO.
The softer tire is a cheap and easy solution to allow the CRT and now "open" bikes to be closer to the front.

Perfect? Nah. But a pretty simple and tidy bandaid.

And I am not 100% sure about next year, but I think the extra soft tire will still be there. The factories could have it too, if they would just hand over their precious non spec software.

It is kind of a brilliant ploy if you ask me; they can have one or the other, but not both.

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Not looking forward to the Monday after the last race

Gonna be a loooong off season................
Oh, but the new season will start right away! Total excitement for that week after.
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