Damn lies and statistics - might as well walk

[TUX]

Interesting article just appeared in the Sydney Morning Herald re stats around overall deaths in Australia.

http://www.smh.com.au/national/healt...228-2bz8u.html

Always been a bit interested in finding out how they came to such grand conclusions around risks of riding as justification to so strongly discourage us at every turn from throwing a leg over...not interested enough to actually bother go looking though you understand....unit now...

If you drill down through the sections to eventually find "Motorcyclists" (236 in 2010) we are more or less on equal footing number wise with a "Pedestrian" (227 in 2010).

I am sure I am about to be corrected by someone who got a better mark than me in high school maths (yes I know its proportional to the numbers undertaking the activity etc etc)...but I would almost bet the whole 17 times more likely to die thing is a complete crock.

[The Bigfella]

.... and if you are a smoker (a more apt term would be sucker).... your chances of dying from it are somewhere between one in four and one in two, IIRC. I had a 56 year old guy who worked for me... he came into my office one day to tell me he'd been diagnosed with throat cancer. He said "I've never had a day off work sick in my life"... he died pretty soon after that.

I'll stick with the bikes and leave the fags to the risk takers

[greendude]

as Homer Simpson once said
"statistics are useless,you can use them to prove anything"

[upsidedowngreg]

Originally Posted by TUX

I am sure I am about to be corrected by someone who got a better mark than me in high school maths (yes I know its proportional to the numbers undertaking the activity etc etc)...but I would almost bet the whole 17 times more likely to die thing is a complete crock.

I am pretty sure I didn't get a better mark than anyone else in high school maths but I have looked at this stuff before (checked out Australian Transport Safety Bureau) They usually calculate the 17 times (or thereabouts) more likely to die stuff on a per kilometre travelled basis. Somehow they work out the total number of kilometres travelled by all cars / bike or trucks etc in Australia and then divide that figure by deaths/injuries etc. From memory the last time I looked (about 5 years ago) it was about 1 death per 100 million kilometres for cars, and around 19 deaths per 100 million kilometres for bikes.

I worked out that for the number of kms I was travelling by car each year that statistically it would take me about 3500 years to rack up 100 million kms and thus die. For my bike it was about 190 years. No wonder most drivers/riders think it can't happen to them. But an average of 4 people a day die on our roads each day and it makes good media particularly at xmas time. Supposedly its more tragic to die at xmas than at other times of the year - tell that to the families of people who die during the other 51 weeks of the year.

So for individuals like us we shouldn't worry too much as we are unlikely to die on the road. But for Governments/police etc they worry about it because for them its pretty much guaranteed that 4 people a day will die on the roads, and its a bad look for them so they worry about it. and governments get a sh:t load of revenue out of speed cameras etc so they milk it for all its worth - end of story

We should be more worried about getting prostrate cancer, or having a heart attack.

[enookway]

It's all about what is acceptable to society at the time.
When they were building the Snowy Hydro scheme in the 50's, they were losing 1 bloke per km of tunnel. At the time it was 3 times better than world standard (ie the accepted rate was 3 blokes per km).

As long as the road toll is decreasing, or can be shown to be decreasing statistically, then the goverments will keep patting themelves on the back.

[Warin]

Why is it the gobermint feels road and gun deaths are its' responsibility where as cancer, heart attacks, etc aren't?


No stats :

Life leads to death.

How would you like to die?

[GodSilla]

Originally Posted by upsidedowngreg

We should be more worried about getting prostrate cancer, .....

I never knew you could catch cancer from lying down.....

[MODNROD]

Depends if you also eat potatoes or not.

[upsidedowngreg]

Originally Posted by GodSilla

I never knew you could catch cancer from lying down.....

Hi Godsilla

It's true......anyone who has ever had cancer has at some time in their life laid down.........or as Neil from The Young Ones put it "sleep gives you cancer everyone knows that".

[PBee]

When the road toll goes down it's the gubermints hard work. "Aren't we good".

If it goes up it's the nasty rotten Public who is at fault. "They must be punished".

[JohnG.]

Originally Posted by GodSilla

I never knew you could catch cancer from lying down.....

Yup,exercise,eat fibre,crap a lot seems to be the secret...