ADVrider

Go Back   ADVrider > Riding > The perfect line and other riding myths
User Name
Password
Register Inmates Photos Site Rules Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Old 02-15-2013, 09:17 AM   #16
Moronic
Beastly Adventurer
 
Moronic's Avatar
 
Joined: May 2006
Location: Perth, Australia
Oddometer: 1,568
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bentebent View Post
Yet you reject the article based upon assumptions of your own.
No. I reject the article because it is very confusing and because it offers only the more alarming of many possible explanations for the figures it cites.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bentebent View Post

Unless the older population has also increased at 3x the rate of younger adults, wouldn't this mean there IS an increase in serious injuries for older riders? It's not a stretch by any means, we're seeing the same thing here in Sweden. The older population is increasing but they're crashing at a faster rate than they're growing.

No. By "rate of hospitalisation", they mean the number admitted to hospital from among those who crashed and needed emergency care.

By "threefold increased rate of hospitalisation compared with younger adults", it is not entirely clear what they mean.

One interpretation would be that the increase in that number over the study period for older riders was three times greater than for the youngest riders. But since there are 15 times as many young riders getting hurt, and all numbers are rising, that is extremely implausible.

More plausible is that "rate" is being used ambiguously, so that for this figure it does refer to a proportion: that is, the proportion admitted to hospital from among those presenting at emergency departments. So it is saying that the increase in this proportion was three times greater for over-60s than for under-40s. So for example, the proportion for under-40s might have risen from 20 per cent to 21 per cent, while the proportion for over-60s rose from 40 per cent to 43 per cent.

But we are guessing because neither the newspaper piece nor the abstract it is written off make things clear.

What is clear though (as pointed out by others above), is that the study makes no attempt to compare the numbers hurt in crashes with the numbers riding.
__________________
Sorting out the S4Rs Ohlins shock: click here.
Moronic is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-15-2013, 10:35 AM   #17
daveinva
Studly Adventurer
 
Joined: Oct 2011
Location: Washington, D.C.
Oddometer: 553
"Damn, all those elderly cagers out there who can't read street signs and don't bother signalling and just drive into other cars without a care of the world, those old people should have their licenses revoked and put in homes for being such dangerous drivers!"

-- says every 65-year-old biker without self-awareness.

Here's a helpful hint: getting older affects everyone, whether behind the wheel, or behind the bars.

I hate that life is a bell curve, but it's true: corrected for experience, both younger and older drivers *and* riders are riskier than the ones in the middle.

No one escapes biology. Or gravity, for that matter.
daveinva is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-15-2013, 01:12 PM   #18
Aussijussi
Beastly Adventurer
 
Joined: Oct 2009
Location: Finland-Australia
Oddometer: 1,136
Anyone nearing 60 or over it, 64 in my case, will know all the facts mentioned in the nyt article, unless they're really thick in the head. It won't stop me riding anyway. I slowed down, well, some, but i do agree on that you have to recognise the limitations brought on by age, eyesight, reflexes, cognitive functions, and stiffness of joints, turning the old head can be a pain!
Aussijussi is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-15-2013, 08:42 PM   #19
mammal
Gnarly Adventurer
 
Joined: Dec 2009
Location: C-Bus, Ohio
Oddometer: 171
How do you know someone's full of shit? 92% of the time 73% of their argument relies on statistics. That being said, it's the implied conclusion that bugs me, especially since the method of statistical analysis, as Moronic pointed out, is unclear. The implication from the article is clearly that older riders are a risk to themselves, at the very least. Really? So the graybeard riding on his 20th bike is more dangerous than the 20 year old with a learner's permit (maybe) on one wheel at 90 mph? There's a lot more than reflexes and 20/20 vision that contributes to an accident.
Sure, the guy who rode a CB450 25 years ago and buys a Goldwing when he retires maybe is a risk, but maybe even he has the sense to ride within his limits.
Rant off, back to my beer.
mammal is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-15-2013, 09:27 PM   #20
jnclem
True Airhead
 
Joined: Sep 2012
Location: Gunnison, CO.
Oddometer: 387
Just two thoughts:

63% of all statistics are made up on the spot, and come on people, it's the New York Times. How much truth do you ever find in the NYT?
jnclem is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-15-2013, 09:35 PM   #21
Craneguy
British Hooligan
 
Craneguy's Avatar
 
Joined: Apr 2011
Location: Riyadh, KSA, Cuernavaca, Mx, Houston, Tx
Oddometer: 1,027
....
__________________
Young enough to think I can. Old enough to know I shouldn't. Stupid enough to do it anyway
'13 Duc Multi GT, '10 Vstrom 1k, '10 705cc KLR
Craneguy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-15-2013, 10:20 PM   #22
DAKEZ
Beastly Adventurer
 
DAKEZ's Avatar
 
Joined: Mar 2007
Location: OR
Oddometer: 19,697
Quote:
Originally Posted by jnclem View Post
... come on people, it's the New York Times. How much truth do you ever find in the NYT?
Never believe anything printed in the NY Fish Wrapper.
__________________
“Watch out for everything bigger than you, they have the "right of weight"
Bib
DAKEZ is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-15-2013, 10:39 PM   #23
corndog67
Banned
 
Joined: Jan 2006
Location: Santa Maria, CA
Oddometer: 1,281
It is the same as that statement, that it's not if, but when you crash a bike that some people always trot out. The defeatist attitude, you'll crash no matter what. I don't think like that.

On the other hand, I know a couple old racer guys from years past, that quit riding because they didn't feel their reflexes were good enough any more to deal with shit out on the road or trail.
corndog67 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-17-2013, 08:12 PM   #24
Sox Fan
SoxFan
 
Sox Fan's Avatar
 
Joined: Apr 2007
Location: Southeast Michigan
Oddometer: 897
Hmmm...Seems like common sense to me. Riders getting older and riding larger and larger bikes while skills gradually diminish.

Maybe the article's stats aren't perfect but someone show me better data that contradict what the article says.
__________________
2004 R1150 GSA
2005 MV Agusta F41000S
2011 335i
1989 911
Sox Fan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-17-2013, 09:29 PM   #25
SkiFastBadly
A beer? Yes, please
 
SkiFastBadly's Avatar
 
Joined: Mar 2007
Location: Woodinville, WA
Oddometer: 1,522
I'm 57. I just spent four days in Milwaukee, my home town, because I was summoned to the deathbed of my mother who's 91. Watching the woman who raised me and taught me how to ride a bicycle reduced to a shrivled, helpless, incontinent shadow of her former self makes me want to ride faster. I'd much rather go out with my brains splattered against a tree or the grill of a Buick. My apologies to Buick owners.

Your mileage, of course, may vary.
__________________
The crows seemed to be calling his name, thought Caw.

2008 Buell Ulysses
2008 Triumph Scrambler
2004 HD Heritage Softail
SkiFastBadly is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-18-2013, 12:22 PM   #26
ph0rk
Doesn't Care
 
ph0rk's Avatar
 
Joined: Dec 2009
Location: Oaktown
Oddometer: 2,051
Quote:
Originally Posted by Moronic View Post
No. I reject the article because it is very confusing and because it offers only the more alarming of many possible explanations for the figures it cites.
The article is standard fare, and doesn't really make any causal claims that are unsubstantiated by the data used. If you get confused by it that is your failing, not that of the original article. There is a tiny amount of speculation, and that speculation is at the end, where it belongs. Based on emergency room admissions, the number of motorcycle injuries involving older riders is on the rise. Most of the lines people get pissy about are cites to other articles. Get pissy about those, not this one, which is essentially a research note (we looked at data X and found relationships Y and Z between variables A and B). I'd wager it jives with the findings of sports medicine, too: older bodies get damaged more easily.

The number of people that come out of the woodwork to play scientist whenever a slightly controversial article gets press would be a good thing if most of them had even the slightest clue how to read and understand the original article. Cripes, it isn't as if the NIH is champing at the bit to fund motorcycle injury studies, and you sure as hell wouldn't get IRB approval to have a bunch of people of various ages fall on their elbows at 60 mph. Data on accidents like this is very limited access, and other than emergency rooms the only other real sources are police reports and insurance claims.
__________________
--Semantics are everything.
ph0rk is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-18-2013, 03:46 PM   #27
ttpete
Rectum Non Bustibus
 
Joined: May 2009
Location: Dearborn, MI
Oddometer: 5,679
It's flawed because it doesn't consider riding experience. There's a lot of difference between a 60 year old rider who's been riding for 45 of his years and a 60 year old newly retired person who buys his very first motorcycle and expects to tour the USA a month later.

The news business loves to tell the public how to live their lives. I just ignore it all.
__________________
15 BMW RnineT
10 Ducati 1098 Streetfighter S - "Sleipnir"
09 Kaw Versys
67 Triumph Bonneville TT Special
ttpete is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-18-2013, 04:09 PM   #28
ph0rk
Doesn't Care
 
ph0rk's Avatar
 
Joined: Dec 2009
Location: Oaktown
Oddometer: 2,051
Quote:
Originally Posted by ttpete View Post
It's flawed because it doesn't consider riding experience. There's a lot of difference between a 60 year old rider who's been riding for 45 of his years and a 60 year old newly retired person who buys his very first motorcycle and expects to tour the USA a month later.

The news business loves to tell the public how to live their lives. I just ignore it all.
It isn't flawed - it is making an interpretation of the best data available.

To follow along with a good enough sample of riders, say ~5,000 riders cluster sampled for age and education level for, oh, lets say four years to ensure a good enough frequency of accident would cost tens of millions of dollars. Tens of millions. The study that's under discussion? The data exists, so it only costs the time of a researcher to acquire and analyze the data, write it up, revise, etc. Any grant proposal for that multi-million dollar study that will never happen would require citations of studies like this one anyway, and if studies like this didn't exist they'd need to be completed to justify the money for the big study.

Such a grant still wouldn't get funded, and the public would be livid if the NIH funded a $20 million grant to study "how dangerous motorcycles are". Can you imagine that news cycle?

People like to complain that the research done wasn't some other research study that's impossible given the political climate, ethical standards, time, or interest. Be happy anyone is paying any attention to motorcycle safety at all. Further, don't confuse the research with the science reporting after the fact - journalists have their own standards and agendas.
__________________
--Semantics are everything.
ph0rk is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-18-2013, 04:27 PM   #29
ttpete
Rectum Non Bustibus
 
Joined: May 2009
Location: Dearborn, MI
Oddometer: 5,679
Quote:
Originally Posted by ph0rk View Post
It isn't flawed - it is making an interpretation of the best data available.

To follow along with a good enough sample of riders, say ~5,000 riders cluster sampled for age and education level for, oh, lets say four years to ensure a good enough frequency of accident would cost tens of millions of dollars. Tens of millions. The study that's under discussion? The data exists, so it only costs the time of a researcher to acquire and analyze the data, write it up, revise, etc. Any grant proposal for that multi-million dollar study that will never happen would require citations of studies like this one anyway, and if studies like this didn't exist they'd need to be completed to justify the money for the big study.

Such a grant still wouldn't get funded, and the public would be livid if the NIH funded a $20 million grant to study "how dangerous motorcycles are". Can you imagine that news cycle?

People like to complain that the research done wasn't some other research study that's impossible given the political climate, ethical standards, time, or interest. Be happy anyone is paying any attention to motorcycle safety at all. Further, don't confuse the research with the science reporting after the fact - journalists have their own standards and agendas.
Sounds like you've got a dog in the hunt here.

Those few paragraphs are known in the newspaper business as "filler". If the paper really cared, they'd run a multi page article and cover the subject thoroughly.

Did it ever occur to you that some of us don't really care? I don't need gratuitous advice on how to live my life. I'd be happy if more people minded their own fucking business.
__________________
15 BMW RnineT
10 Ducati 1098 Streetfighter S - "Sleipnir"
09 Kaw Versys
67 Triumph Bonneville TT Special
ttpete is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-18-2013, 04:37 PM   #30
ph0rk
Doesn't Care
 
ph0rk's Avatar
 
Joined: Dec 2009
Location: Oaktown
Oddometer: 2,051
Quote:
Originally Posted by ttpete View Post
Sounds like you've got a dog in the hunt here.
Not really my field. Ignorant folks trashing studies when they fully comprehend neither the study nor the environment it comes from on the other hand grinds a gear or two.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ttpete View Post
Did it ever occur to you that some of us don't really care? I don't need gratuitous advice on how to live my life. I'd be happy if more people minded their own fucking business.

You care enough to post in the thread, don't you? I don't see how he original article makes any prescriptive statements - the number of older riders that visit the ER is on the rise, full stop. Sounds more like you are upset about what you think the findings may mean. Don't worry, the actuarial scientists already know.
__________________
--Semantics are everything.
ph0rk is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Share

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

.
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On

Forum Jump


Times are GMT -7.   It's 02:45 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.5
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright ADVrider 2011-2014