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Old 05-12-2013, 10:16 AM   #76
Zerk
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave in Wi View Post
Then they don't understand numbers (or at least the agent doesn't). Your statistical chance of having an accident (all else being equal) is the same every time you ride. It doesn't go up every time you ride without an accident.

.
I agree, day by day, but I think you have to look as a whole.

If every mile is just as likely as any other mile to have an accident, the more miles you ride the more chances you have taken.

Do you believe the guy who rides 10k a year is less likely then the guy who ride 100k?

You have 1 in6 chances of the bullet in Russian Roulete. You may go with 6 wins, or lose on the 1st. But each time you spin, you are more likely to come up a loser, then the last.
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Old 05-12-2013, 10:23 AM   #77
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Still larfing over the fart thing... too funny.

I stay away from Honda Odyssey's... must be huge blind spots or just preoccupied soccer dads and moms driving the damn things. Had so many close calls with those minivans that now I stay as far away from them as possible; to the point that I am superstitious of them.

Weird but true.
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Old 05-12-2013, 12:03 PM   #78
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The first time I said a prayer, I thought it was just me being paranoid. Especially when not long after I did a sloppy launch from a stop, and then goofed a downshift at the following turn. Way to go, dude; some prayer that was. Fifteen minutes later, I took a right turn at an intersection just a tad fast and went through some post-wreck frag that wasn't cleared with the wreck. Plastic shards, glass bits, a little gravel, lots of paint flakes. The bike didn't even quiver, just went like a rail through the FOD. How or why it didn't wash out and throw me down, I don't know.

So now within the first five minutes of a ride, or at the first stoplight, I'll say Shepard's Prayer again: "Please dear god don't let me fuck up."

Does it work? I dunno, but it certainly doesn't hurt!
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Old 05-12-2013, 04:11 PM   #79
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zerk View Post
You have 1 in6 chances of the bullet in Russian Roulete. You may go with 6 wins, or lose on the 1st. But each time you spin, you are more likely to come up a loser, then the last.
This is only comparable if you spin the chamber every time you pull the trigger, so that it is random each time instead of 1:6, 1:5, 1:4... till the last one. If you spin the chamber each time, it remains 1:6.
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Old 05-12-2013, 08:07 PM   #80
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Originally Posted by Yeps View Post
This is only comparable if you spin the chamber every time you pull the trigger, so that it is random each time instead of 1:6, 1:5, 1:4... till the last one. If you spin the chamber each time, it remains 1:6.
A better comparison still would be that every time you manage a ride/month/year without an incident, you add another empty chamber to the revolver, so your odds of finding the bullet actually decrease with each few successful (no bang!) spins
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Old 05-12-2013, 08:21 PM   #81
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Quote:
Originally Posted by slartidbartfast View Post
Actually it goes DOWN every time you ride without an accident. A rider with ten years of no accidents is considerably less likely to have an accident in a year (or on any ride) than a rider with only one year since their last accident (or one year of insurance with no claim.)

Of course that doesn't mean that you can play with numbers and assume that you won't have a crash (or a claim) just because you have not done so for the last twenty years - but statistically, every time you ride and don't crash you have just improved your statistical profile.
Exactly!

Jim
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Old 05-12-2013, 08:23 PM   #82
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zerk View Post
I agree, day by day, but I think you have to look as a whole.

If every mile is just as likely as any other mile to have an accident, the more miles you ride the more chances you have taken.

Do you believe the guy who rides 10k a year is less likely then the guy who ride 100k?

You have 1 in6 chances of the bullet in Russian Roulete. You may go with 6 wins, or lose on the 1st. But each time you spin, you are more likely to come up a loser, then the last.

Assuming you spin it every time, the chances are the same every time!

That said, roulette isn't like riding. You are not getting lucky riding, you are minimizing your chances of an accident the more experience you gain. Playing roulette does not offer a chance of improvement by experience.

Jim
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Old 05-13-2013, 07:41 AM   #83
Dave in Wi
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Superstition and statistics in the same thread. Who would have thought. Please nobody bring up Monty Hall.
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Old 05-13-2013, 08:55 AM   #84
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Originally Posted by Reduxalicious View Post
My own personal experience, When I'm suiting up to go for a ride, If I have a nervous knot in my stomach, I know it'll be a good ride, If I'm feeling real comfortable, not nervous and really calm, I need to be on the look out--For some reason the days I have the knot, nothing happens, the days I don't and feel calm, a Cager about slams into me, or something else crazy like that.



x2...!!!
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Old 05-13-2013, 12:56 PM   #85
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I hold my breath when I drive by cemeteries.

On an OCD note, I also always put my right glove on first, but I put my left boot on first. I don't know why, but it just doesn't feel right if I do the opposite.

I also put my underwear on BEFORE my pants. Because the other way not only doesn't feel right, it looks stupid.
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Old 05-13-2013, 04:21 PM   #86
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zerk View Post

You have 1 in6 chances of the bullet in Russian Roulete. You may go with 6 wins, or lose on the 1st. But each time you spin, you are more likely to come up a loser, then the last.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Yeps View Post
This is only comparable if you spin the chamber every time you pull the trigger, so that it is random each time instead of 1:6, 1:5, 1:4... till the last one. If you spin the chamber each time, it remains 1:6.
Is there another you could win 6 times in a row?
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Old 05-13-2013, 04:26 PM   #87
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JimVonBaden View Post
Assuming you spin it every time, the chances are the same every time!

That said, roulette isn't like riding. You are not getting lucky riding, you are minimizing your chances of an accident the more experience you gain. Playing roulette does not offer a chance of improvement by experience.

Jim
This is an interesting issue and probably worthy of its own thread.
What you say is clearly true at an individual level.
But consider yourself as part of a population - where statistic really become powerful and predictive.

We are all part of a motorcycling population which rides a certain number of miles and has a certain number or accidents per year. If you had this data you would be able to calculate the accident rate per thousand or million miles travelled.

My understanding of the population stats would say that the more miles you do per year (as a normal rider within the population - leaving aside any individual differences) the more likely you are to be involved in an accident.

The Russian Roulette analogy (although not a very good one) would be trying it once vs repeating it twenty times (with one bullet + spinning every time). Or perhaps better have 100 people playing russian roulette at the same time. What are the statistical chances then of a % of them getting the bullet?

My personal reflection of riding risks also supports what I am suggesting theoretically. While I do everything I can to reduce risk there is still an amount of randomness to accidents which is beyond my control - and the more I ride, the more likely I am to get caught out by one of these random factors.

Classic case over here is fucking kangaroos (like deer for you maybe).
They are a real hazard + I and everyone I know has had incidents or accidents with them. Everyone tries to reduce risk - don't ride at night, dawn, dusk/ slow down in high likelihood areas/ ride the centreline as much as poss etc - but non of these things eliminate the risk entirely. Roos are just too random. The only way to eliminate the risk it to not ride.

So the more I ride in the bush (ie 95% of Oz and where all the adv riding is) the more likely I am to hit a kangaroo at some stage. I know this risk and do all I can to avoid it but I am also aware that it is a numbers game to some extent.

Any statisticians on the board care to give and opinion on this?
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Old 05-13-2013, 04:27 PM   #88
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Quote:
Originally Posted by slartidbartfast View Post
A better comparison still would be that every time you manage a ride/month/year without an incident, you add another empty chamber to the revolver, so your odds of finding the bullet actually decrease with each few successful (no bang!) spins
Yes and no. Yes experience makes you less likely to get in an accident. But it does not effect random events, which we have little to no control over.


I am not saying everyone will get in an accident, but X% will, which is what the insurance company looks at.

All the skill the world will do you no good, when the car you are passing, decides to change lanes or answers their cell phone and swerves.
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Old 05-13-2013, 05:27 PM   #89
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zerk View Post
...All the skill the world will do you no good, when the car you are passing, decides to change lanes or answers their cell phone and swerves.
I disagree. You may not be able to respond to every eventuality, but it's not an unrealistic goal to be able to avoid or respond approriately to most of them. In the case of the merging/texting driver, you can: see the erratic behaviour and give them a wide berth; get past them quickly, before they have chance to do something stupid; be ready to swerve/brake/accelerate out of their way, etc.
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Old 05-13-2013, 05:53 PM   #90
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Dude, you change your shorts? That's just asking for it.
I don't. First day right side out, second day inside out, third day turn them around, fourth day right side out, fifth day start over again...
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